Poland Retail Report Q1 2013
Report description
The Polish Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Poland's economic outlook of government austerity measures coupled with a tailing-off of investment after the European football championships in 2012, which will drag on domestic demand and consumer spending.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Polish retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the negative effects of the eurozone crisis, together with domestic austerity, on the Polish consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Polish retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Polish per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 25% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 33%. The country comes sixth (out of 10) in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, and outperforms slightly for Risk.
Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales expected to grow by 31% between 2013 and 2017. BMI forecasts hypermarkets to outperform the rest of the MGR sector, with sales expected to rise by almost 33% over the forecast period. Poland is one of the key MGR markets in the CEE region: with disposable incomes rising, more Polish consumers are converting to modern retail formats.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees continuing upside potential from the senate vote in 2007 against a law that would have imposed construction restrictions on hypermarkets. The ruling has paved the way for Poland's major operators to continue unfettered with their expansion plans.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
o BMI has revised down its real GDP growth forecast for 2013 to 2.6% from 2.9% as eurozone demand looks set to remain weak well into 2013. Nonetheless, we expect Poland to continue outperforming the CEE region as its large domestic market and exposure to Germany provide a measure of insulation from the sovereign debt crisis.
o BMI estimates real growth of 1.5% in household consumption in 2012 owing to the slowdown in investment after the European football championships and weak export growth. The expansion in household spending is then likely to recover somewhat in 2013 as the eurozone economy picks up in the latter half of the year. We expect household consumption to expand by 2.1% in 2013.
o Retail sales performance has been even less impressive in volume terms, with growth averaging just 0.4% y-o-y in 2012 to June. Latest data show retail sales increasing by just 3.1% y-o-y in September, well below expectations of 5%.
Table of contents
Chapter - Executive Summary
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Poland Retail Business Environment SWOT
Poland Political SWOT
Poland Economic SWOT
Chapter - Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Retail Indicators, 2010-2016
Table: Retail Sales By Key Segment, 2013f
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Poland - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Chapter - Regional Retail Outlook
Central And Eastern Europe Retail Outlook
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2009-2016
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn, unless stated)
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016
Regional Retail Trends
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings
Poland's Retail Rating
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail
Poland Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Leading Retailers
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2004-2010
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value (US$bn), 2004-2010
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Industry Developments
Chapter - Consumer Electronics
Poland Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Market Overview
Computers
Table: PC Sales, 2009-2016
AV Devices
Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016
Mobile Handsets
Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Electronics Market
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016
Industry Developments
Chapter - Automotives
Poland Autos Industry SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Auto Production, 2009-2016
Table: Auto Sales, 2009-2016
Production And Sales
Chapter - Demographic Outlook
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Poland's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Poland's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
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