Poland Food and Drink Report Q4 2012

We continue to forecast relatively weak real Polish consumption growth of 1.5% and 2.1% in 2012 and 2013 respectively as a slowing economy and balance sheet strains weigh on household spending. Real wage growth, which has already been weak or negative since early 2011, will be hit by a slowing investment and external demand, coupled with already high unemployment. Government austerity measures will also cap increases in public sector wages. That said, the long-term outlook for consumption is strong, and we highlight food and drink as being particularly well placed to benefit.

Headline Industry Data ?? 2012 per capita food consumption growth in local currency = 3.9%; forecast compound annual growth to 2016 = 5.3%. ?? 2012 beer volume sales growth = 1.6%; forecast compound annual growth to 2016 = 2.4%. ?? 2012 mass grocery retail sales growth in local currency = 6.8%; forecast compound annual growth to 2016 = 8.4%.

Key Industry Trends Jerónimo Martins Q2 Results Show Poland Slowdown: We have written extensively about Portugal-based food retailer Jerónimo Martins’ business in Poland, where it owns the no-frills discount chain Biedronka. Given the economic struggles faced by Portugal, the strength of Jerónimo’s business in Poland has been a godsend for the firm over the past few years. However, judging by the company’s second-quarter results, the growth wheels appear to have come off somewhat. Same-store growth in Poland slowed markedly from 20% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q211 to 4.7% in Q212, which, according to Biedronka, is a direct consequence of the slowdown in Poland’s economy. In terms of the group’s performance, net income of EUR84mn missed consensus expectations for EUR90mn. Jerónimo’s shares are down by about 7.9% in 2012 so far, and while we believe that it has very likely suffered as a result of being an important component of Portugal’s benchmark PSI-20 Index as concerns about the eurozone periphery have intensified, the second-quarter slowdown in Poland is a blow.

Table of contents

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis

Poland Agriculture SWOT

Poland Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 3 - Supply & Demand Analysis

Poland Grains Outlook

Table: Poland Wheat Production & Consumption, -

Table: Poland Corn Production, -

Table: Poland Barley Production & Consumption, -

Table: Poland Wheat Production & Consumption, -

Table: Poland Corn Production, -

Table: Poland Barley Production & Consumption, -

Poland Livestock Outlook

Table: Poland Poultry Production & Consumption, -

Table: Poland Pork Production & Consumption, -

Table: Poland Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, -

Table: Poland Poultry Production & Consumption, -

Table: Poland Pork Production & Consumption, -

Table: Poland Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, -

Poland Dairy Outlook

Table: Poland Milk Production & Consumption, -

Table: Poland Butter Production & Consumption, -

Table: Poland Cheese Production & Consumption, -

Table: Poland Milk Production & Consumption, -

Table: Poland Butter Production & Consumption, -

Table: Poland Cheese Production & Consumption, -

Poland Rice Outlook

Table: Poland Rice Consumption, -

Table: Poland Rice Consumption, -

Poland Sugar Outlook

Table: Poland Sugar Production & Consumption, -

Table: Poland Sugar Production & Consumption, -

Chapter 4 - Commodity Price Analysis

Monthly Softs Update

Cocoa: Momentum Waning

Coffee: Temporary Rally

Cotton: Forming A Base

Palm Oil: Underperforming The Complex

Sugar: Scope For A Moderate Rebound

Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts

Monthly Grains Update

Wheat: Little Relief From Southern Hemisphere

Corn: Looking The Weakest

Soybean: Prices To Stay Relatively Supported

Rice: Still The Underperformer

Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts

Poland Agribusiness Report Q

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Chapter 5 - Upstream Analysis

Europe Fertiliser Outlook

Europe GM Outlook

Europe Machinery Outlook

Chapter 6 - Downstream Analysis

Consumer Outlook

Food

Food Consumption

Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Meat

Table: Bacon & Ham, -

Table: Sausage, -

Fish

Table: Fish, -

Frozen Fruit & Vegetables

Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables, -

Pasta

Table: Pasta, -

Confectionery

Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Drink

Alcoholic Drinks

Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Soft Drinks

Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Hot Drinks

Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Mass Grocery Retail

Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Trade

Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Chapter 7 - Country Snapshot

Table: Poland’s Population By Age Group, - (‘)

Table: Poland’s Population By Age Group, - (% of total)

Table: Poland’s Key Population Ratios, -

Table: Poland’s Rural And Urban Population, -

Chapter 8 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Related research categories

By sector: General drinks

By market: Poland (in Europe)