Philippines Retail Report Q1 2013
The Philippines Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about how ongoing external weaknesses impact on the Philippines' economic outlook.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Philippine retail market while minimising investment risk. It also explores the impact of the emerging hard landing in China on the Philippine consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Philippine retail sector, as they seek to maximise growth opportunities offered by the local market.
The Philippines comes last in BMI's Asia Retail risk/reward ratings, although it outperforms slightly for rewards.
Among all retail categories, Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 41.5% between 2013 and 2017, from US$13.94bn to US$19.72bn as domestic operators start modernising their outlets and increase the variety of products on offer.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in market liberalisation, which may encourage global multinationals to enter the country.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
?? BMI has revised upwards its full-year 2012 private consumption growth outlook to 5.0% from 4.3% as a result of the services sector's stronger-than-expected performance in Q112, bringing our full-year headline GDP forecast for 2012 from 3.9% previously to 4.2%. The Philippine economy expanded by 6.4% year-on-year in Q112, beating expectations with strong services growth of 8.5% amid an improving domestic outlook.
?? BMI has upgraded its private consumption forecast for 2012 to 5.0% from a previous forecast of 4.3%. Private consumption contributed a strong 4.6pp to overall growth in Q112, expanding by 6.6% y-o-y and reflecting the positive consumer story in the archipelago. Stoked by strong wage growth near 7.0%, remittance growth of 5.4% and dovish inflation expectations (we see inflation ending the year at a moderate 3.4% versus its current rate of 3.0%), consumer confidence improved from -20.6% in Q411 to -14.7% in Q112.
Table of contents
Chapter - Executive Summary
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Philippines Retail Business Environment SWOT
Philippines Political SWOT
Philippines Economic SWOT
Chapter - Market Overview
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Philippines Retail Sales Indicators, 2010-2017
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2013f
Table: Philippines - Economic Activity
Chapter - Regional Retail Outlook
Asia Pacific Retail Outlook
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales, 2010-2017 (%)
Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook, 2010-2017
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings
The Philippines' Retail Rating
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Chapter - Consumer Electronics
Philippines Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Philippines Electronics Industry SWOT
Table: Computers: Demand, 2009-2016
Table: AV: Demand, 2009-2016
Table: Mobile Handsets: Demand, 2009-2016
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview
Chapter - Automotives
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Philippines Auto Industry – Sales, 2010-2016
Table: Philippines Auto Industry – Production, 2010-2016
Table: Philippines Passenger Cars – Production And Sales, 2010-2016
Table: Top Ten Carmakers In Philippines By Sales (Units), 2010-2011
Chapter - OTC Pharmaceuticals
Philippines Pharmaceutical And Healthcare Industry SWOT
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
Table: OTC Medicine Sales, 2008-2016
Table: Overview Of BnB, BNB and P100 Programme
Table: Cost Of Generic Drugs In Philippines (PHP)
Table: Number Of BnBs and BNBs In Selected Philippine Regions
Chapter - Demographic Data
Table: Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Philippines' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Philippines' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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