Peru Retail Report Q1 2013
The Peru Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Peru's economic outlook of sluggish growth in net exports.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Peruvian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of a more aggressive slowdown in economic activity in the US or China than we are currently expecting on the Peruvian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Peruvian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Peruvian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 20% to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 17%. The country comes second (out of seven) in BMI's Latin American Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, outperforming slightly for Reward.
Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer between 2013 and 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase from US$2.56bn in 2013 to US$3.31bn by the end of the period. Growth in MGR sales is expected to outstrip that of overall food sales (29% compared with 28%), with MGR's share of the overall food market predicted to grow from 11.2% in 2013 to 11.3% by 2016.
Over the next five years, expansion by the leading operators and market entry by new players is expected to result in dynamic growth in the MGR sector. As such, BMI is forecasting that between 2013 and 2016 sales at Peruvian hypermarkets will increase by 17.6% to reach US$1.28bn, while sales at supermarkets will increase by 37.1% to reach US$1.41bn.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
?? Given a strong economic performance in the year-to-date on the back of strong private consumption growth and investment data, and our view that any slowdown in economic activity will be relatively moderate, BMI has revised up its 2012 real GDP growth forecast for Peru to 5.6% from 4.8% previously. Moreover, given the government's demonstrated willingness to enact growth-supportive policies, we have revised up our 2013 growth forecast to 5.2% from 4.8% previously.
?? BMI forecasts private consumption to contribute 4.1 percentage points (pp) to GDP growth in 2012 (up from 4.0pp previously), implying real growth of 6.3%. Moreover, although we expect a continued slowdown in private consumption in 2013, we modestly revised up our 2013 forecast for private consumption's contribution to real GDP growth to 3.5pp (from 3.3pp previously), implying real growth of 5.2%.
?? BMI's forecast for strong private consumption has been reinforced by the fact that the retail sector expanded by 7.2% in the first half of 2012, and by 14.57% in September, the latest month for which data are available.
Table of contents
Chapter - Executive Summary
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Peru Retail Business Environment SWOT
Peru Political SWOT
Peru Economic SWOT
Chapter - Market Overview
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Peru Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segments, 2013f
Table: Peru - Economic Activity
Chapter - Regional Retail Outlook
Table: Latin America Retail Trends, 2009-2016
Table: Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
Table: % Of Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016
Table: Regional Food Consumption, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
Table: Regional Mass Grocery Retail, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
Regional Retail Trends
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings
Peru's Retail Rating
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Chapter - Consumer Electronics
Peru Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Table: PC Sales
Table: AV Sales,2010-2016
Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Electronics Market
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016
Chapter - OTC Pharmaceuticals
Peru Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016
Pharmaceutical Distribution And Retail
Chapter - Demographic Outlook
Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Peru's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Peru's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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