Pakistan Food and Drink Report Q1 2013
Report description
With a population nearing 180mn and enormous room for incomes to grow, Pakistan is far from realising its potential. Across all the major indicators in food and drink, Pakistan is growing from a very low base. From a macroeconomic perspective, our Asia team expects real private consumption growth to moderate from the 11.6% growth rate achieved in FY2011/12 to a still-healthy rate of 3.8% in FY2012/13, contributing 3.0 percentage points to headline growth. This area of the economy is projected to contribute the most (in statistical terms) to economic growth. Crucially, remittance inflows have staged a strong recovery from their September 2011 lows.
Headline Industry Forecasts
? 2013 food consumption growth (local currency) = +11.6%, compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2017 = +11.7%.
? 2013 carbonated soft drinks volume sales growth = +3.1%, CAGR to 2017 = +3.0%.
? 2013 mass grocery retail sales growth (local currency) = +15.2%, CAGR to 2017 = +15.1%.
Key Company Trends
Unilever Pakistan's Sales Outlook Looking Brighter: In May 2012, it was reported that Pakistan-based fast-moving consumer goods company Unilever Pakistan witnessed strong growth of 16.1% despite facing difficult operating conditions in FY2011. Unilever Pakistan's strong showing was largely supported by its new product launches and improvement in its distribution reach across the country. We are optimistic about Unilever Pakistan's full-year prospects on the back of an improving domestic demand picture. However, we acknowledge rampant tea smuggling as a major risk to Unilever Pakistan's sales outlook.
PepsiCo's Sixth Largest Global Market: In what might be a surprise, Pakistan is PepsiCo's sixth largest market, according to one of the firm's executives, Qasim Khan. Across the subcontinent, PepsiCo generally has a strong history, and Pakistan has been no exception. Whereas The Coca-Cola Company is dominant across much of the emerging world, making headway in India and Pakistan has been much harder for the firm.
Table of contents
Chapter - BMI Industry View
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Pakistan Food Industry SWOT
Pakistan Drink Industry SWOT
Pakistan Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Chapter - Business Environment
BMI's Core Global Industry Views
Table: Core Views
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings, Q113 (score out of 10)
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113
Pakistan Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Canned Food
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Drink
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts
Trade
Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Chapter - Food
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Unilever Pakistan's Sales Outlook Looking Brighter
No Pickup In Food CPI Despite Grains Rally
Pakistan A Fledgling But Growing Force On Global Halal Scene
Market Overview
Food Processing
Leading Players
Confectionery
Trade
Agriculture
Dairy
Organics
Chapter - Drink
Key Industry Trends And Developments
PepsiCo Establishes Strong Presence
Tea Sector Not Realising Full Potential Yet
Beer Increasingly Popular
Market Overview
Soft Drinks
Hot Drinks
Alcoholic Drinks
Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Multinational Investment Outside Wholesale Not Forthcoming
Market Overview
Leading Players
Chapter - Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players In Pakistan's Food & Drink Sector
Table: Key Players In Pakistan's Mass Grocery Retail Industry
Chapter - Company Profiles
Food
Hilal Confectionery
Nestlé Pakistan
Unilever Pakistan
Drink
Murree Brewery
Coca-Cola Beverages Pakistan Limited (CCBPL)
Tapal Tea
Mass Grocery Retail
Utility Stores Corporation (USC)
Chapter - Demographic Outlook
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Pakistan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Pakistan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Weighting
Table: Weighting
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing
The just-drinks office is currently: Open
Office opening hours
Mon-Thursdays 9:00am-5:30pm
Fridays 9:00am-4:30pm
The office is closed during weekends.
Current time at just-drinks headquarters: 3:05pm (Friday, 24 May 2013)
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