North Africa Food and Drink Report Q4 2012

North Africa Food and Drink Report Q4 2012

Published: September 2012
Publisher: Business Monitor International (BMI)
Product ref: 149470
Pages: 114
Format: PDF
Delivery: Immediate download

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Food consumption is expected to rise steadily over the next five years. The authorities are also aiming to improve government spending, while simultaneously improving the business environment and strengthening the private sector. On the negative side, youth unemployment remains elevated (in fact, the figure is as high as 70% in some areas) and a cause for simmering tensions, thus posing downside risk to our GDP growth forecasts. While Algeria has the benefits of hydrocarbon wealth and a willingness to make compromises, which together indicate a relatively safe position for the country’s political stability, political unrest could derail economic activity and reduce foreign direct investment inflows.

Headline Industry Data ?? Per capita food consumption is forecast to grow by 8.5% in 2012 (local currency). To 2016, per capita food consumption is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 6.8%. ?? Mass grocery retail sales (local currency) are forecast to increase by 20.3% in 2012. To 2016, compound annual growth of 26.5% is forecast.

Key Industry Trends And Developments Casino and Al Meera Investing In Retail: In February 2012, French retailer Casino signed a joint venture agreement with Qatari retail group Al Meera Holding, with plans to open outlets in North Africa and Jordan. The joint venture, called ALGE Retail, is looking at expansion in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. It will be headquartered in Geneva, with Casino owning 49% and Al Meera 51%.

Nestlé Launches Milk Powder Factory Amid Rising Demand: In October 2011, Swiss food conglomerate Nestlé launched a milk powder factory in Algiers to exploit rising domestic demand. The firm’s second plant in the country will help to expand its presence, while also enhancing the local industry, according to the managing director of Nestlé Algeria, Bertrand Sigwalt. The new facility is likely to generate 50 jobs and will allow Nestlé to distribute other brands like Nescafé and Nesquik from 2012. Key Risks to Outlook

Downside Risks Prevail: The risks to our current consumer outlook are currently mostly to the downside. For example, a sudden drop in global energy prices, prompted by a double-dip recession in the West or other phenomenon, poses a downside risk to our GDP and fiscal budget forecasts, which would also trickle down to consumer spending. Such a scenario would also limit the government’s ability to respond to future protests, thus denting investor confidence in the country, which currently remains underserved in organised retail terms. We also stress that potential large-scale unrest also poses downside risks to Algeria’s political risk profile in the longer run. North Africa Food & Drink Q4 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 8

Libya Libya’s near-term growth outlook was given a slight boost in late December2011 following reports that the resumption of oil production was proceeding more quickly than previously expected, and that the United Nations and US and EU governments had decided to lift sanctions against the central bank. Given the faster-than-expected ramp up in oil production in late 2011, we expect to see a strong rebound in growth in Libya's hydrocarbon economy in 2012. However, despite an ample financial arsenal and largescale reconstruction needs, a lack of institutional capacity and a tenuous security environment mean that growth in non-hydrocarbon sectors will lag.

Headline Industry Data ?? Per capita food consumption is forecast to grow by 12.3%. To 2016, per capita food consumption is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 8%. ?? Mass grocery retail sales are forecast to increase by 26.6% in 2012. To 2016, compound annual growth of 15.70%.

Key Regional Company Trends Casino and Al Meera Investing In Retail: In February 2012, French retailer Casino signed a joint venture agreement with Qatari retail group Al Meera Holding, with plans to open outlets in North Africa and Jordan. The joint venture, called ALGE Retail, is looking at expansion in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. It will be headquartered in Geneva, with Casino owning 49% and Al Meera 51%.

Dabur India To Establish New Manufacturing Plants: In February 2012, Fast-moving consumer goods major Dabur India announced it is set to make a INR1bn (US$20.1mn) investment for the establishment of new manufacturing plants in Africa over the next two years in a bid to expand its global footprint. According to a company official, the fund will be utilised primarily to construct plants in places such as Morocco and Southern and Eastern Africa. The official added that the new plants will support its existing factories in Nigeria and Egypt.

Key Risks to Outlook Political Risks Remain Elevated: The risks to our current consumer outlook and to the wider market for food and beverages are mostly to the downside. Libya's combination of oil wealth, tribal divisions, weakto- non-existent institutions and the prevailing security vacuum portend to significant instability and potential for violent conflict over the coming years. This will translate into a highly risky operating environment, which will continue to detract investment in new and existing capacities for food and beverage production. In the meantime, the economy's growth potential will remain dependent on three key variables: the speed and scale with which oil production can be brought back online; the state of the underlying security environment; and the state of the utilities sector – in particular, the provision of a stable supply of electricity.

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