Netherlands Food and DrinkReport Q4 2012

We expect household consumption to remain extremely weak in the months ahead. European banks remain heavily exposed to their countries' sovereign debt, and we expect ongoing balance sheet repair to limit credit extension in the Netherlands. Combined with weaker domestic economic activity that is set to weigh on the Dutch labour market (we forecast unemployment at 6.5% by end-2012) consumer credit demand is also set to remain weak. Recent data from the Dutch Central Bureau of Statistics show that household disposable income is down 0.4% from 2010, and we expect this will continue to weigh on Dutch private consumption growth. Combined with still-declining house prices, which create a negative wealth effect, this is set to keep already weak consumer confidence very low in the months ahead.

Headline Industry Data (local currency): ?? 2012 per capita food consumption: +0.5%; forecast to 2016 = +14.7% ?? 2012 alcoholic drink sales: +0.7%; forecast to 2016 = +6.9% ?? 2012 soft drink sales: +0.8%; forecast to 2016 = +12.7% ?? 2012 mass grocery retail sales: +2.8%; forecast to 2016 = +29.3%

Key Industry Trends & Developments Unilever Continues Exit From Frozen Foods: In July 2012, consumer goods giant Unilever announced the sale of its North American frozen meals business to local food producer ConAgra for US$265mn. The move continues Unilever's movement away from frozen food, with the firm having previously sold its European assets in this sector. The move also continues the drive away from products that are exposed to growth in private labels, with Unilever keen to focus on sectors for which its brand building expertise can be put to best use.

Ahold Margins Under Pressure: As previously noted by BMI, an increase in competitive pressure in the Netherlands' retail sector is affecting the margins of the country's largest retailer, Ahold. For the first half of 2012 the firm reported that its underlying operating margins came in at 4.3%, compared with 4.5% in the same period of 2011. Underlying operating margins in the Dutch market fell from 6.2% to 5.4%, representing a fairly dramatic decline.

Key Risks To Outlook Eurozone Debt Crisis: The ongoing eurozone crisis poses a threat to investor confidence throughout the entire region. The risk of a major sovereign credit event in Europe would further damage confidence, Netherlands Food & Drink Report Q4 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 8 putting significant pressure on export demand and, therefore, on the Netherlands’ economic growth and consumption. While we expect Dutch sovereign bond yields to remain relatively insulated from wider market jitters, a continued deterioration in the regional crisis could drag on economic growth.

Table of contents

Chapter 1 - BMI Industry View

Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis

Netherlands Food Industry SWOT

Netherlands Drink Industry SWOT

Netherlands Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT

Chapter 3 - Business Environment

BMI’s Core Global Industry Views

Table: Core Views

Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings

Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Subcategories, Q (scores out of )

Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings, Q

Netherlands Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating

Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Economic Activity, -

Chapter 4 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Consumer Outlook

Food

Food Consumption

Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts , -

Processed Meat

Table: Meat Production & Trade, -

Oils & Fats

Oils And Fats Volume Sales Production & Trade, -

Jam

Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales Production & Trade, -

Confectionery

Table: Confectionery Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Drink

Soft Drinks And Bottled Water

Table: Soft Drink Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Alcoholic Drinks

Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Mass Grocery Retail

Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Table: Mass Grocery Retail Breakdown By Format

Trade

Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Chapter 5 - Food

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Unilever Continues Frozen Exit

Douwe Egberts To List On Dutch Exchange

Vion’s Operating Results Down % In

Unilever Posts Lacklustre Results; Questions Raised About Strategy

Unilever May Eventually Leave Food Sector (But Not Yet)

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Halloren Looks To Steenland For Chocolate Growth

Heinz Centralises European Supply Chain In The Netherlands

Unilever Restructures To Focus On Emerging Markets

Market Overview

Food

Dairy

Chapter 6 - Drink

Key Industry Trends & Developments

ThaiBev's Bid For F&N Could Thwart Heineken

Heineken Has Steady , But Mexico Not Yet Delivering

Heineken Misses Opportunity With Schincariol

Market Overview

Soft Drinks And Bottled Water

Alcoholic Drinks

Chapter 7 - Mass Grocery Retail

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Ahold Margins Under Pressure

Dutch Retailers Face Sales Tax, Excise Duties Increases

EC Clears Way For Ahold To Purchase bolcom

Ahold Reveals Plans For German Entry With Convenience Stores

Ahold Can Make Progress In Belgium With Low-Price Model

Market Overview

Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets, -

Table: Annual Average Sales Per Outlet By Format –

Chapter 8 - Competitive Landscape

Table: Key Players In The Dutch Food Sector

Table: Key Players In The Dutch Drink Sector

Table: Key Players In The Dutch Mass Grocery Retail Sector

Chapter 9 - Company Monitor

Food

Unilever

FrieslandCampina

Drink

Heineken International

Mass Grocery Retail

Ahold

Chapter 10 - Country Snapshot

Table: The Netherlands’ Population By Age Group, - (‘)

Table: The Netherlands’ Population By Age Group, - (% of total)

Table: The Netherlands’ Key Population Ratios, -

Table: The Netherlands’ Rural And Urban Population, -

Chapter 11 - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology

Table: Rewards

Table: Risks

Weighting

Table: Weighting

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Chapter 12 - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary

Food & Drink

Mass Grocery Retail

Chapter 13 - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Sourcing

Related research categories

By market: Netherlands (in Europe)