Namibia Food and Drink Report Q1 2013

Namibia's new vehicle sales look to be sustaining the momentum built over the last few years. In the first eight months of 2012, vehicle sales in Namibia increased 24.9% year-on-year (y-o-y), to 9,684 units. We believe that this growth rate will continue for the rest of the year, and accordingly revise our 2012 sales forecast to a more bullish 24% increase, to some 15,400 units. BMI's bullish outlook for economic growth in the country, and increase in private consumption, has partly informed this revision. Passenger vehicle sales rose 46.6% y-o-y in August, to 585 units. In this month, commercial vehicles sales were up 20% y-o-y, to 738 units. BMI believes that these increases come on the back of government spending coming into effect. Increasingly, we expect much growth in the passenger car segment, and that this will drive total vehicle sales over the medium term. Indeed, passenger car sales make up an increasing percentage of total vehicle sales, and we expect this to continue as private consumption increases.

In April 2012, it was reported that the Ministry of Local Government spent NAD6mn (US$763,270) on cars and light trucks for regional governors, comprising NAD3.5mn for trucks and NAD2.5mn on cars. Further growth opportunities for the commercial vehicle segment are tied to BMI's expectations for a recovery in the industries that often support demand for trucks and heavy vehicles. Our Africa team expects improved productivity in the mining and agriculture sectors, which could provide a much needed boost for the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segments - the only categories not to post monthly growth in March.

The H1 growth enabled the two leading brands, Volkswagen (VW) and Toyota Motor to expand their market share to a combined 52%. US brands Ford and Chevrolet have 9% and 8%, respectively. In the light commercial vehicle segment, Toyota has a 49% of the market. Nissan Motor has a market share of 12%, and Chevrolet and Isuzu have 11% each.

Table of contents

Chapter 1 - BMI Industry View

Chapter 2 - Business Environment

BMI’s Core Global Industry Views

Table: Core Views

Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Ratings

Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Q Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings

Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Economic Activity

Chapter 3 - Industry Forecast

Food, Drink, Mass Grocery Retail

Food Consumption

Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Drink

Mass Grocery Retail

Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Chapter 4 - Market Overview

Southern Africa: A Great Opportunity For Multinationals

SABMiller’s Sechaba Breweries: SSA’s Most Efficient Beer Company?

Chapter 5 - Demographic Outlook

Table: Namibia – Population By Age Group,- (‘)

Table: Namibia – Population By Age Group,-

Table: Namibia – Key Population Ratios,-

Table: Namibia – Rural & Urban Population,-

Chapter 6 - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology

Table: Rewards

Table: Risks

Weighting

Table: Weighting

Chapter 7 - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary

Food & Drink

Mass Grocery Retail

Chapter 8 - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Sourcing

Related research categories

By sector: General drinks

By market: Namibia (in Africa)