Mozambique Food and Drink Report Q4 2014

Mozambique Food and Drink Report Q4 2014

Published: August 2014
Publisher: Business Monitor International (BMI)
Product ref: 219725
Pages: 48
Format: PDF
Delivery: Immediate download

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BMI View: Economic data for Mozambique have been giving off mixed signals over recent months. As we
highlighted in our last piece of analysis on economic activity, results from SABMiller, the biggest brewer,
showing that lager volume sales declined by 2.0% in year-on-year (y-o-y) terms in the final three months of
2013 suggested that private consumption had been affected by tensions between the government and
opposition party Renamo. Because private consumption makes up around three quarters of GDP, these data
prompted us to make a downgrade to our real GDP growth forecast for 2014 - based on the assumption that
tensions would not dissipate too quickly - to 6.9% from 8.1% previously (see 'Small Growth Downgrade On
Political Instability' from February 7 2014). However, because Mozambique is one of the poorest countries
in the world, Mozambicans spend a great proportion of their income on food and drink, and we believe this
trend will continue for the foreseeable future. We forecast food consumption per capita to rise year-on-year
at an average rate of about 14.8% between 2013 and 2018, with real GDP per capita rising by a similar
rate.


Key Forecasts

¦ 2014 total food consumption growth in local currency terms: +13.8%; compound annual growth rate
(CAGR) forecast to 2018: +14.8%.

¦ 2014 per capita food consumption growth (local currency): +11.1%; CAGR forecast to 2018: +12.0%.

¦ 2014 beer volume sales growth: +9.0%; CAGR forecast to 2018: +10.3%.

¦ 2014 carbonated soft drink volume sales growth: +11.6%; CAGR forecast to 2018: +12.5%.

¦ 2014 total mass grocery retail sales growth in local currency terms: +15.0%; CAGR forecast to 2018:
+14.6%.

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By market: Mozambique (in Africa)


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