Mozambique Food and Drink Report Q1 2013
Report description
Although the economy has expanded rapidly over recent years, this was coming from a very low base. An expected GDP per capita of US$604 in 2012 means that Mozambique is the 10th poorest country on the world’s poorest continent. Furthermore, although we are forecasting economic growth will be very strong over the coming decade, averaging an impressive annual rate of 9.9% in the 2012-2021 period, much of this will be on the back of natural resource extraction, which will not automatically benefit the average Mozambican. It will therefore be up to the government to ensure that the country’s headline economic boom benefits the population at large to ensure that popular discontent and political instability does not build. This will cost money.
Key Forecasts
?? Per capita food consumption growth (local currency) in 2013: 11.3%. Compound annual growth rate to 2017: 11.2%.
?? Beer volume sales growth in 2013: 8.7%. Compound annual growth rate to 2017: 10.0%.
Key Trends
Organised Retailing: All Southern Africa markets lag regional leader South Africa in terms of the presence of organised grocery retailing. Across the region, formalisation will be a key driver of mass grocery retail sales growth, as more and more shoppers trade up to organised retail channels. This will be true even for the region’s more mature markets; however, we also expect the steady introduction of new store offerings, such as non-food products, to help to support growth. In Mozambique, we estimate that only around 2-3% of grocery retail sales are accounted for by the organised sector and this provides tremendous room for growth.
Beverage Sector Growth: We expect to see strong beverage sales growth throughout the region over our forecast period to 2017 and beyond. There is enormous potential in beer and soft drinks, specifically carbonates, at this stage of the region’s development. Throughout the region the beer market is already keenly contested, and this level of competition will lead to significant new investment over our forecast period, driving strong sector growth. At an estimated 9mn litres per annum, Mozambique’s beer consumption level remains low by regional standards and this provides enormous potential for sales growth.
Demographic Appeal: Demographics are a key component of the region’s appeal, given the very low base from which most growth is occurring and the severe income inequalities that still persist. Mozambique’s population dynamics are a plus point for investors. The country’s already attractive 23.9mn-strong population base (as of 2011) will grow to 29.2mn by 2020 and by an enormous 110% over our entire forecast period, to stand at 50.2mn in 2050. Most notable is the age profile of the population; in 2012, 54% of Mozambique’s population is expected to have been younger than 20, and this provides immense long-term growth opportunities for regional investors.
Table of contents
Chapter - BMI Industry View
Chapter - Business Environment
BMI's Core Global Industry Views
Table: Core Views
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity
Chapter - Industry Forecast
Food, Drink, Mass Grocery Retail
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Sugar Confectionery Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Preserved Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Snack Foods Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Sweet Biscuits Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Bread Products Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Drink
Table: Beer Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Carbonated Soft Drinks Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Chapter - Market Overview
Southern Africa: A Great Opportunity For Multinationals
SABMiller's Sechaba Breweries: SSA's Most Efficient Beer Company?
Chapter - Demographic Outlook
Mozambique's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
Mozambique's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Mozambique's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Mozambique's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Weighting
Table: Weighting
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing
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