Mexico Retail Report Q1 2013
Report description
The Mexico Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Mexico's economic outlook of moderating external demand, feeding through to weaker consumer confidence and weighing on private consumption.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Mexican retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of a eurozone crisis or rapid slowdown in Chinese growth on the Mexican consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Mexican retail sector as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Mexican per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by a respectable 25% between 2013 and 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 17%. The country comes third out of seven in BMI's LatAm retail risk/reward ratings, although it underperforms slightly in the 'reward' category.
Among all retail categories, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales expected to rise by 38.8% between 2013 and 2016, from US$2.01bn to US$2.79bn.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in President Felipe Calderón having signed a decree to amend the regulation of health supplies, which should strengthen Mexico's business environment and encourage domestic industry growth.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
?? BMI is modestly revising up its 2012 real GDP growth estimate, from 3.8% to 4.0%, to take into account stronger-than-anticipated export growth in H112. We maintain our 2013 forecast of 3.4%, implying a noticeable deceleration.
?? After robust 5.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) real growth in H112, BMI anticipates a moderation in private consumption in coming quarters, forecasting growth of 4.6% in 2012 and 3.6% in 2013. We forecast that, after contributing a substantial 3.2 percentage points (pp) to headline growth in 2012, private consumption's contribution will fall to 2.5pp in 2013.
?? BMI's forecast for moderating private consumption has been reinforced by recent retail sales data, which showed a disappointing rise of just 2.6% in July 2012, following a sharp decline the previous month. However, sales rose more than expected in August, by 4.8% y-o-y. In the first eight months of 2012, retail sales were up 4.6% from the same period in 2011.
Table of contents
Chapter - Executive Summary
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Mexico Retail Business Environment SWOT
Mexico Political SWOT
Mexico Economic SWOT
Chapter - Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2013f
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Mexico - GDP Contribution To Growth
Chapter - Regional Retail Outlook
Table: Latin America Retail Trends, 2009-2016
Table: Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
Table: % Of Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016
Table: Regional Food Consumption, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
Table: Regional Mass Grocery Retail, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
Regional Retail Trends
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings
Mexico's Retail Rating
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail
Mexico Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Numbers Of Outlets
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales Value By Format (US$bn)
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales Value By Format (MXNbn)
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Chapter - Consumer Electronics
Mexico Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Market Overview
Computers
Table: PC Sales, 2008-2016
AV
Table: AV Sales, 2008-2016
Mobile Handsets
Table: Mobile Communications, 2008-2016
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Electronics Market
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2008-2016
Industry Developments
Chapter - Automotives
Mexico Autos Industry SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Sales
Table: Mexico Autos Sales By Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
Production
Table: Mexico Autos Production By Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
Competitive Landscape
Table: Mexico Vehicle Production, 2010-2011
Table: Mexico – Vehicle Sales To Dealerships, 2010-2011
Industry News
Passenger Cars
Table: Mexico Passenger Car Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
New Investments
Jumping On The Electric Car Bandwagon
Chapter - Demographic Outlook
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Mexico's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Mexico's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
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