Malaysia Retail Report Q4 2012

The Malaysian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on Malaysia’s economic outlook of growing concerns over the outlook for employment in the export sector.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Malaysian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of cooling global demand on the Malaysian consumer as well as on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Malaysian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

Malaysia comes third (out of seven) in BMI’s Asia Retail risk/reward ratings, although it outperforms slightly for risk.

Among all retail categories, Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 46.6% between 2012 and 2016, from US$13.63bn to US$19.98bn as a growing affluent middle- and upper-income consumer base embraces the concept. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the potential easing of hypermarket regulations.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

• Recent economic data suggests that Malaysia's better-than-expected real GDP growth reading of 5.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q411 could be a one-off. Leading economic indicators continue to support BMI’s view that the consensus forecast for real GDP growth of 4.1% for 2012 remains too optimistic. Accordingly, we are sticking to our forecast for real GDP growth to come in at a much more subdued 3.3% this year.

• Indicators for private consumption published by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) show that households are beginning to cut back on spending aggressively. Growth in consumer goods imports slowed for the fourth consecutive month from 33.1% y-o-y in September to 19.9% in December, and growth in outstanding credit card balances has also remained on a steady downtrend since January 2011. We expect this trend to continue.

Table of contents

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis

Malaysia Retail Business Environment SWOT

Malaysia Political SWOT

Malaysia Economic SWOT

Chapter 3 - Market Overview

Key Players

Current Trends

Chapter 4 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Consumer Outlook

Retail Growth Outlook

Table: Malaysia Retail Sales Indicators,

Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, f

Chapter 5 - Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: MalaysiaEconomic Activity,

Chapter 6 - Regional Retail Outlook

Asia Pacific Retail Outlook

Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales,(US$bn)

Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales,(%)

Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption,(US$bn)

Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook,

Chapter 7 - Risk/Reward Ratings

Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings

Table: Asia Pacific Retail Risk/Reward Ratings

Malaysia’s Retail Rating

Limits To Potential Returns

Risks To Realisation Of Returns

Chapter 8 - Mass Grocery Retail

Malaysia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT

Market Overview

Table: Structure Of Malaysia’s MGR Market – Estimated Number Of Outlets,

Table: Structure Of Malaysia’s MGR Market – Sales By Format,(US$bn)

Table: Structure Of Malaysia’s MGR Market – Sales By Format,(MYRbn)

Table: Average Sales Per Outlet by Forma,

Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Type,And(%)

Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: MGR Sales By Format,

Industry Developments

Chapter 9 - Consumer Electronics

Malaysia Consumer Electronics Market SWOT

Malaysia Electronics Industry SWOT

Market Overview

Computers

Table: Computers Sales,

AV

Table: AV: Sales,

Mobile Handsets

Table: Mobile Communications,

Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Consumer Electronics Overview,

Industry Developments

Chapter 10 - Automotives

Malaysia Autos SWOT

Market Overview

Table: Malaysian Passenger Vehicle Sales,

Industry Forecast Scenario

Production

Table: Malaysia Autos Production, Sales And Car Ownership Rates

Sales

Table: Malaysia Autos Sales Forecast

Chapter 11 - Passenger Cars – Forecast & Analysis

Table: Sales Malaysia Passenger Car Forecast,

Table: Malaysia – Passenger Car Sales By Model

Chapter 12 - Demographic Outlook

Table: Malaysia's Population By Age Group,(')

Table: Malaysia's Population By Age Group,(% of total)

Table: alaysia's Key Population Ratios,

Table: Malaysia's Rural And Urban Population,

Chapter 13 - BMI Methodology

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Sources

Related research categories

By sector: Retail (in Off-trade)

By market: Malaysia (in Asia)