Malaysia Retail Report Q1 2013
Report description
The Malaysian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on Malaysia's economic outlook of negative wealth effects. The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Malaysian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of a hard landing in the Chinese economy on the Malaysian consumer as well as on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Malaysian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Malaysia comes third (out of seven) in BMI's Asia retail risk/reward ratings, although it outperforms slightly for risk.
Among all retail categories, Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 40.1% between 2013 and 2017, from US$15.06bn to US$21.11bn as a growing affluent middle- and upper-income consumer base embraces the concept. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the potential easing of hypermarket regulations.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
o We continue to expect the consensus estimate on Malaysia's real GDP growth for this year - which presently stands at 4.1% - to move closer to our core view for a more subdued growth rate of 3.3%. The disappointing reading of China's purchasing managers' index has reinforced our core view for a hard landing in the Chinese economy, which in turn, compels us to maintain a bearish outlook on Malaysian exports.
o Households are expected to cut back aggressively on spending over the coming months as new loan guidelines implemented by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to tighten consumer lending in January 2012 come into effect. Our view that property prices in Malaysia could cool in 2013 also suggests that negative wealth effects could weigh on private consumption growth over the coming quarters. Growth in consumer goods imports slowed for the fourth consecutive month, from 33.1% y-o-y in September 2011 to 19.9
%in December 2011, and growth in outstanding credit card balances has also remained on a steady downtrend since January 2011. We expect this trend to continue.
Table of contents
Chapter - Executive Summary
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Malaysia Retail Business Environment SWOT
Malaysia Political SWOT
Malaysia Economic SWOT
Chapter - Market Overview
Key Players
Current Trends
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Malaysia Retail Sales Indicators, 2010-2017
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2013f
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Malaysia - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Chapter - Regional Retail Outlook
Asia Pacific Retail Outlook
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales, 2010-2017 (%)
Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook, 2010-2017
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings
Malaysia's Retail Rating
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail
Malaysia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Table: Structure Of Malaysia's MGR Market – Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2005-2011
Table: Structure Of Malaysia's MGR Market – Sales By Format, 2005-2011 (US$bn)
Table: Structure Of Malaysia's MGR Market – Sales By Format, 2005-2011 (MYRbn)
Table: Average Sales Per Outlet by Forma, 2011
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Type, 2012 And 2021 (%)
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: MGR Sales By Format, 2010-2016
Industry Developments
Chapter - Consumer Electronics
Malaysia Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Malaysia Electronics Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Computers
Table: Computers Sales, 2009-2016
AV
Table: AV: Sales, 2009-2016
Mobile Handsets
Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016
Industry Developments
Government Authority
Chapter - Automotives
Malaysia Autos SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Production
Table: Malaysia Autos Production
Sales
Table: Malaysia Autos Sales Forecast 2010-2016
Trade
Table: Malaysia Autos Trade, 2010-2016
Passenger Cars
Table: Malaysia – Passenger Car Sales By Model 2011
Chapter - Demographic Data
Table: Malaysia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Malaysia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Malaysia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Malaysia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
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