Libya Food and Drink Report Q1 2013
Report description
As the Libyan economy is one of the least diversified markets in the world, the sharp recovery in oil production is clearly the main driver of headline growth in the near term. According to estimates by the IMF, hydrocarbons account for 70% of GDP, more than 95% of exports, and 90% of government revenues. While this underscores the lack of development in the non-hydrocarbon economy and raises questions about whether any new government will be able to make significant headway in bolstering the private sector, it also provides a degree of solace that 2011's contraction will prove only temporary. Given that the hydrocarbon sector is not a major employer, the massive ramp-up in production and exports this year will be unlikely to translate into a marked improvement in living standards in the near term. Therefore, while consumer spending within food and drink is still expected to grow quite strongly in 2013, it is also true that a lot of this growth is coming from a low base.
Headline Industry Data ?? Per capita food consumption is forecast to grow by 11.0% in 2013. To 2017, per capita food consumption is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 6.2%. ?? Mass grocery retail sales are forecast to increase by 21.4% in 2013. To 2017, compound annual growth of 12.0%.
Key Regional Company Trends Casino and Al Meera Investing In Retail: In February 2012, French retailer Casino signed a joint venture agreement with Qatari retail group Al Meera Holding, with plans to open outlets in North Africa and Jordan. The joint venture, called ALGE Retail, is looking at expansion in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. It will be headquartered in Geneva, with Casino owning 49% and Al Meera 51%. Dabur India To Establish New Manufacturing Plants: In February 2012, fast-moving consumer goods major Dabur India announced it is set to make a INR1bn (US$20.1mn) investment for the establishment of new manufacturing plants in Africa over the next two years in a bid to expand its global footprint. According to a company official, the fund will be used primarily to construct plants in places such as Morocco and Southern and Eastern Africa. The official added that the new plants will support its existing factories in Nigeria and Egypt.
Key Risks to Outlook Political Risks Remain Elevated: The risks to our current consumer outlook and to the wider market for food and beverages are mostly to the downside. Libya’s combination of oil wealth, tribal divisions, weakto- nonexistent institutions and the prevailing security vacuum portend to significant instability and potential for violent conflict over the coming years. This will translate into a highly risky operating environment, which will continue to detract investment in new and existing capacities for food and beverage production. In the meantime, the economy’s growth potential will remain dependent on three key variables: the speed and scale with which oil production can be brought back online; the state of the underlying security environment; and the state of the utilities sector – in particular, the provision of a stable supply of electricity.
Table of contents
Chapter 1 - BMI Industry View
Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis
North Africa Food Industry SWOT
North Africa Drink Industry SWOT
North Africa Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Chapter 3 - Business Environment
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views
Table: Core Views
Middle East Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa Q Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Middle East & North Africa Q Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings (scores out of )
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Table: Libya – Economic Activity
Chapter 4 - Industry Forecast
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Libya – Food Consumption
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Libya – Mass Grocery Retail Sales
Chapter 5 - Industry Trends And Developments
Key Regional Industry Trends And Developments
Savola And Almarai Look Well Placed For Growth
Weak Spanish Market Pushes Food Producers To Look At North Africa
Regional Governments Aim To Reduce Dependence On Imports
Regional Market Overview
Food Consumption
Food Production
Confectionery
Agriculture
Chapter 6 - Drink
Key Regional Industry Trends And Developments
Surprisingly Strong Alcohol Industry
Local Companies Attract Foreign Interest
Tourism Continues To Shape Development Of Drinks Industries
Regional Market Overview
Alcoholic Drinks
Soft Drinks
Hot Drinks
Chapter 7 - Mass Grocery Retail
Key Regional Industry Trends And Developments
Foreign Players Increasingly Interested In North Africa
Not All Plain Sailing
Regional Market Overview
Chapter 8 - Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players In North Africa’s Food & Drink Sector
Table: Key Players In North Africa’s MGR Sector
Chapter 9 - Demographic Outlook
Table: Libya’s Population By Age Group, - (‘)
Table: Libya’s Population By Age Group, - (% of total)
Table: Libya’s Key Population Ratios, -
Table: Libya’s Rural And Urban Population, -
Chapter 10 - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Weighting
Table: Weighting
Chapter 11 - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
Chapter 12 - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing
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