Lebanon Food and Drink Report 2013
Report description
The outlook for Lebanese consumers is looking increasingly cloudy, with downside pressures building both on the domestic and external fronts. The economy's external position is being undermined by elevated commodity import bills (with Lebanon having to rely on imports of fuel), a collapse in tourism revenues, and a slowdown in foreign capital inflows. Moreover, with no end in sight to the ongoing civil war in Syria, we now believe Lebanon's economy will remain in a soft patch for a protracted period, and have revised down our 2013 real GDP growth. Elevated political risks will also have a negative impact on consumption patterns, with premiumisation still in play, but only within wealthier urban pockets.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
?? 2013 per capita food consumption = +2.74%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2017 = +4.06%.
?? 2012 soft drink sales = +5.30%; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +4.90%.
?? 2013 mass grocery retail (MGR) sales = +5.10%; forecast (CAGR) to 2017 = +7.19%.
Key Company Trends
Foods Safety Remains an Issue: Since the start of 2012, authorities have organised a number of raids on food storage facilities in a bid to improve food safety and consumer trust in regards to domestic products. The campaign, a joint effort by the agencies including the Consumer Protection Bureau, Army units and the Internal Security Forces (ISF), mirrors similar operations undertaken in the previous year.
Spinneys Opens Eighth Outlet in Lebanon: In September 2012, regional retailer Spinneys inaugurated its eighth store in Lebanon. The new outlet, which is located in Byblos, employs 200 staff. The branch, spread over an area of 3,000 square metres, has a capacity for parking of 300 cars.
Key Risks to Outlook
Political Risks Elevated: The assassination of the head of the Information Branch of the Internal Security Forces (ISF), Brigadier General Wissam al-Hassan, on October 19 2012 plunged Lebanon into its most acute domestic political crisis in several years, with risks of a descent into civil war gradually building. At the moment, we are not making any revisions to our core growth forecasts, as these risks have been priced into our baseline scenario. These latest developments reinforce our bearish stance on Lebanese fixed income and equity markets, and also wider consumption patterns, not least because tourist arrivals are already dropping markedly.
Table of contents
Chapter - Executive Summary
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Lebanon Food Industry SWOT
Lebanon Drink Industry SWOT
Lebanon MGR Industry SWOT
Chapter - Business Environment
BMI's Core Global Industry Views
Table: Core Views
Middle East Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa Q113 Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Middle East & North Africa Q113 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings (scores out of 10)
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Syria – Economic Activity
Chapter - Consumer Outlook
Chapter - Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food consumption indicators
Chapter - Drink
Industry Forecast Scenario
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drinks Indicators – Historical Data & Forecast
Table: Bottled Water Production, Sales And Trade
Hot Drinks
Alcoholic Drinks
Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Lebanon Mass Grocery Retail – Value Sales by Format – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Lebanon Grocery Retail Sales Breakdown (%)
Chapter - Trade
Table: Lebanon Sectoral Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts
Chapter - Food
Key Industry Trends and Developments
Government Implements Programmes to Help the Poor
Market Overview
Food Consumption
Food Production
Agriculture
Table: Oils and fats
Halal Food
Table: Muslim Populations In Select Countries
Chapter - Drink
Key Industry Trends and Developments
Health Drinks Take the Lead
Lebanese Drinks Sector Held Back by Bureaucracy
Market Overview
Soft Drinks
Hot Drinks
Alcoholic Drinks
Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends and Developments
Spinneys Opens Eighth Outlet in Lebanon
Carrefour MAF Reportedly Looking at Lebanon and Iraq
A Lack of Investments Show
Market Overview
Leading Retailers
Table: Structure of Lebanon's Mass Grocery Retail Sector by Estimated Number of Outlets
Table: Estimated Structure of Lebanon's Mass Grocery Retail Sector – Sales Value by Format (US$bn)
Table: Estimated Structure of Lebanon's Mass Grocery Retail Sector – Sales Value by Format (LBbn)
Chapter - Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Table: Key Players in Lebanon's Food & Drink Sector
Table: Key Players in Lebanon's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Chapter - Company Analysis
Food
Karoun Dairy
Drink
Société Moderne Libanaise pour le Commerce (SMLC)
Compagnie des Sources de Liban (Sannine)
Almaza Beer
Mass Grocery Retail
Bou Khalil
Spinneys
Chapter - BMI Methodology
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Ratings System
Indicators
Limits Of Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns
Weighting
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing
The just-drinks office is currently: Closed
Office opening hours
Mon-Thursdays 9:00am-5:30pm
Fridays 9:00am-4:30pm
The office is closed during weekends.
Current time at just-drinks headquarters: 11:16pm (Friday, 24 May 2013)
Need help? Contact the research team
