Kuwait Retail Report Q4 2012
Report description
The Kuwait Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Kuwait's economic outlook of lacklustre investment spending on the part of the government.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Kuwaiti retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of a possible scaling back in oil production as part of an OPEC-driven effort to keep prices supported on the Kuwaiti consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Kuwaiti retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Kuwaiti per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 36% to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of only 2%. The country comes fourth (out of seven) in BMI's Middle East and Africa (MEA) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it underperforms slightly for risk.
Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be one of the outperformers through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 29% between 2012 and 2016, from US$1.05bn to US$1.36bn, with BMI forecasting per capita consumer electronics spend reaching US$339 by 2016 on the back of a high-earning, tech-literate population.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in trade liberalisation, with the elimination of customs duties within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) continuing to stimulate the market; and in telecoms deregulation and 3G expansion, which will drive competition in value-added services and support spending levels on handsets.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views: ? Despite lacklustre investment spending on the part of the government weighing on Kuwait's long-run economic prospects, in the near term BMI expects loose fiscal and monetary policy to continue to spur activity. We are therefore forecasting real GDP growth of 4.5% and 3.7% in 2012 and 2013 respectively.
? Robust household consumption growth is the primary factor behind the country's bright nearterm prospects, and BMI forecasts growth of 7.0% and 4.5% in 2012 and 2013 respectively (compared with an estimated 8.0% in 2011).
Table of contents
BMI Industry ViewSWOT Analysis Kuwait Retail Business Environment SWOT
Kuwait Political SWOT Kuwait Economic SWOT
Market Overview
Current Trends Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016 Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2012f
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity
Regional Retail Outlook Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Trends, 2009-2016 Table: Middle East And Africa Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (%)
Current Trends
Risk/Reward Ratings
Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Ratings Table: Regional Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
Kuwait's Retail Rating
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail Kuwait Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market Share By Retailer – 2010 Estimate Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market – Number Of Outlets
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales Value By Format (US$bn)
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales Value By Format (KWTbn) Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics Kuwait Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Market Overview
Computers
Table: PC Sales 2009-2016
AV
Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016
Mobile Handsets Kuwait Retail Report Q4 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4 Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016 Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Electronics Market
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016 Industry Developments
Automotives
Kuwait Autos Sector SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Sales
Table: Autos Sales Passenger Cars
Table: Top 10 Best-Selling Models 2011
Demographic Outlook Table: Kuwait's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) Table: Kuwait's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Kuwait's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Kuwait's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
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