Kenya Food and Drink Report Q4 2012

The dynamics of a stronger currency, tight monetary policy and improved weather conditions suggest that domestic demand conditions should remain reasonably healthy in 2012. While the lagged impact of tighter monetary conditions could start to bite, we do not believe that this will bear a substantial impact on consumption spending in the coming quarters.

The Kenyan consumer-facing sectors are showing tremendous long-term promise. Although Kenya is not clearly distinguishable from its neighbours Tanzania and Uganda in terms of GDP per capita, Kenya’s consumer sector is significantly more developed than these countries. The domestic food and drink processing industry is much stronger, and internal trade systems are more developed, with organised grocery retail outlets much more widespread.

Following a challenging two-year period over 2008 and 2009, as post-election violence and then a sluggish economy reined in private consumption after a period of accelerated growth, Kenya is much more integrated into the global economy than the rest of the East African Community (EAC). Kenya is the EAC’s economic hub and its most developed consumer market.

Our strong Kenyan view is also backed up by the fact that we believe companies can more efficiently reach the end-consumer market in comparison with Tanzania and Uganda. Internal trade systems are stronger, with mass grocery retail contributing an estimated 5% to consolidated grocery sales compared with a non-Kenyan East African average of about 1%.

Headline Industry Data ?? Per capita food consumption is forecast to increase by 13.0% in 2012. To 2016, we are forecasting a compound annual growth of 10.6%. ?? Mass grocery retail sales are forecast to increase by 29.2% in 2012. To 2016, we are forecasting a compound annual growth of 31.6%.

Table of contents

Chapter 1 - BMI Industry View

Chapter 2 - Business Environment

BMI’s Core Global Industry Views

Table: Core Views

Chapter 3 - Regional Risk/Reward Ratings

Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Drink Ratings

Table: Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q (scores out of )

Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q

Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Kenya – Economic Activity, -

Chapter 4 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Food, Drink, Mass Grocery Retail

Food

Table: Kenya – Food Consumption, -

Table: Kenya – Meat, -

Table: Kenya – Fish, -

Table: Kenya – Dairy, -

Table: Kenya – Snack Foods, -

Drink

Table: Kenya – Beer, -

Table: Kenya – Carbonated Drinks, -

Table: Kenya – Fruit/Vegetable Juice, -

Mass Grocery Retail

Table: Kenya – Mass Grocery Retail Sales, -

Chapter 5 - Market Overview

An Overview Of The East African Food And Drink Industry

Chapter 6 - Key Regional Industry Trends And Developments

Coffee Shops Taking Off In Tea Drinking Nation

Massmart In Talks To Enter Kenya

Africa To Guzzle A Lot More Beer; Look Out For Nigeria

Chapter 7 - Demographic Outlook

Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, - (')

Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, - (% of total)

Table: Kenya's Key Population Ratios, -

Table: Kenya's Rural And Urban Population, -

Chapter 8 - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology

Table: Rewards

Table: Risks

Weighting

Table: Weighting

Chapter 9 - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary

Food & Drink

Mass Grocery Retail

Chapter 10 - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing

Kenya Food & Drink Report Q

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How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Sourcing

Related research categories

By sector: General drinks

By market: Kenya (in Africa)