Kenya Food and Drink Report Q1 2013

The improving macroeconomic environment in Kenya will provide a fillip to private consumption, which our Africa team believes will be the engine of accelerating economic activity. Not only will falling inflation improve consumers' purchasing power, but lower interest rates will also give a boost to private household borrowers – the group with the second largest share of outstanding credit after businesses involved in trade activities.

The Kenyan consumer-facing sectors are showing tremendous long-term promise. Although Kenya is not clearly distinguishable from its neighbours Tanzania and Uganda in terms of GDP per capita, Kenya’s consumer sector is significantly more developed than these countries. The domestic food and drink processing industry is much stronger, and internal trade systems are more developed, with organised grocery retail outlets much more widespread.

Following a challenging two-year period over 2008 and 2009, as post-election violence and then a sluggish economy weighed on private consumption after a period of accelerated growth, Kenya is much more integrated into the global economy than the rest of the East African Community (EAC). Kenya is the EAC’s economic hub and its most developed consumer market.

Our positive outlook for Kenya is also backed up by the fact that we believe companies can more efficiently reach the end-consumer market in comparison with Tanzania and Uganda. Internal trade systems are stronger, with mass grocery retail contributing an estimated 5% to consolidated grocery sales compared with a non-Kenyan East African average of about 1%.

Headline Industry Data

?? Per capita food consumption is forecast to increase by 13.0% in 2013. To 2017, we are forecasting a compound annual growth rate of 10.6%.

?? Mass grocery retail sales are forecast to increase by 31.2% in 2013. To 2017, we are forecasting a compound annual growth rate of 31.6%.

Table of contents

Chapter - BMI Industry View

Chapter - Business Environment

BMI's Core Global Industry Views

Table: Core Views

Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Ratings

Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Q113 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings

Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Economic Activity

Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario

Food

Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017

Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017

Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017

Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017

Table: Snack Foods Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017

Drink

Table: Beer Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017

Table: Carbonated Drinks Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017

Table: Fruit/Vegetable Juice Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017

Mass Grocery Retail

Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017

Chapter - Market Overview

An Overview Of The East African Food And Drink Industry

Chapter - Key Regional Industry Trends And Developments

Coffee Shops Taking Off In Tea Drinking Nation

Massmart In Talks To Enter Kenya

Africa To Guzzle A Lot More Beer; Look Out For Nigeria

Chapter - Demographic Outlook

Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)

Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)

Table: Kenya's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020

Table: Kenya's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020

Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology

Table: Rewards

Table: Risks

Weighting

Table: Weighting

Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary

Food & Drink

Mass Grocery Retail

Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Sourcing

Related research categories

By sector: General drinks

By market: Kenya (in Africa)