Kenya Food and Drink Report Q1 2013
Report description
The improving macroeconomic environment in Kenya will provide a fillip to private consumption, which our Africa team believes will be the engine of accelerating economic activity. Not only will falling inflation improve consumers' purchasing power, but lower interest rates will also give a boost to private household borrowers – the group with the second largest share of outstanding credit after businesses involved in trade activities.
The Kenyan consumer-facing sectors are showing tremendous long-term promise. Although Kenya is not clearly distinguishable from its neighbours Tanzania and Uganda in terms of GDP per capita, Kenya’s consumer sector is significantly more developed than these countries. The domestic food and drink processing industry is much stronger, and internal trade systems are more developed, with organised grocery retail outlets much more widespread.
Following a challenging two-year period over 2008 and 2009, as post-election violence and then a sluggish economy weighed on private consumption after a period of accelerated growth, Kenya is much more integrated into the global economy than the rest of the East African Community (EAC). Kenya is the EAC’s economic hub and its most developed consumer market.
Our positive outlook for Kenya is also backed up by the fact that we believe companies can more efficiently reach the end-consumer market in comparison with Tanzania and Uganda. Internal trade systems are stronger, with mass grocery retail contributing an estimated 5% to consolidated grocery sales compared with a non-Kenyan East African average of about 1%.
Headline Industry Data
?? Per capita food consumption is forecast to increase by 13.0% in 2013. To 2017, we are forecasting a compound annual growth rate of 10.6%.
?? Mass grocery retail sales are forecast to increase by 31.2% in 2013. To 2017, we are forecasting a compound annual growth rate of 31.6%.
Table of contents
Chapter - BMI Industry View
Chapter - Business Environment
BMI's Core Global Industry Views
Table: Core Views
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Q113 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Food
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Snack Foods Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Drink
Table: Beer Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Carbonated Drinks Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Fruit/Vegetable Juice Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Chapter - Market Overview
An Overview Of The East African Food And Drink Industry
Chapter - Key Regional Industry Trends And Developments
Coffee Shops Taking Off In Tea Drinking Nation
Massmart In Talks To Enter Kenya
Africa To Guzzle A Lot More Beer; Look Out For Nigeria
Chapter - Demographic Outlook
Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Kenya's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Kenya's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Weighting
Table: Weighting
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing
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