Kazakhstan Food and Drink Report Q1 2013
Report description
BMI’s Europe team believes that Kazakhstan will continue to enjoy robust economic growth through over the next five years, underpinned by the ongoing development of the nation’s vast natural resource base. This bodes well for consumer spending, with Kazakhstan considered among our favourite countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States region. We see a lot of room for growth across many sectors, particularly alcohol and food retailing. Multinationals led by Nestlé, Turkey-based Ülker and possibly a range of companies in neighbouring Russia, are likely to scale up investment, particularly with much of emerging Europe no longer as attractive on the consumer side following the global financial crisis. Domestic capital market development is also likely to allow more local companies to emerge.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
?? 2013 per capita food consumption: +8.7%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast to 2017: +9.9%
?? 2013 alcoholic drink value sales: +10.0%; CAGR forecast to 2017: +11.6%
?? 2013 soft drink value sales: +15.6%; CAGR forecast to 2017: +15.0%
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Beer Industry Viewed Positively: We view the beer industry positively, with Anadolu Efes’ emerging Europe-focused international brewing unit Efes Breweries International (EBI) competing with Russia’s Baltika (owned by Carlsberg). Strengthening disposable incomes are likely to continue supporting beer industry volume growth at the expense of lower-value spirits in particular over the medium-to-long term, which will very likely push up per capita beer consumption well above the 47 litres at which we estimate it currently stands.
Growth Expected in Mass Grocery Retail: Mass grocery retail looks promising, too, with demand for organised retail expected to pick up strongly over the next few years. External investments, such as those made by Russian and Turkish retailers, and most recently Germany’s Metro, will be crucial in driving growth in the consumer sector.
Key Risks To Outlook
Downside Economic Risks: Our growth forecasts would face downside risks if there were a marked drop in commodity prices, as Kazakhstan is economically dependent upon its extractive industries. If a dramatic drop in oil prices were to materialise (most likely as a result of a negative macroeconomic shock to the global economy), our forecasts would need to be downgraded, with clear implications for consumer confidence.
Table of contents
Chapter - BMI Industry View
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Kazakhstan Food Industry SWOT
Kazakhstan Drinks Industry SWOT
Kazakhstan Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Chapter - Business Environment
BMI's Core Global Industry Views
Table: Core Views
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts
Canned Food
Table: Canned Food Volume/Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Volume/Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Processed Foods
Table: Processed Meat
Table: Frozen Fish
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables
Baked Products
Table: Bread Products & Jams/Jellies
Pasta
Table: Pasta
Dairy
Table: Dairy
Drink
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Mass Grocery Retail
Trade
Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts
Chapter - Food
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Regional Expansion For Frutarom
Wheat Exports To Increase
Kazakhstan Looking to Expand Agricultural Partnerships
Kazakhstan Eyeing Commercial Potential of Liquorice
Hardee's To Open Restaurants In Kazakhstan
Market Overview
Food Processing
Canned Food
Confectionery
Agriculture
Chapter - Drink
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Beer Market Attracting Foreign Players
Growing Interest In Hot Drinks And Water
Consolidation To Strengthen Carlsberg's Presence In The Beer Segment
Market Overview
Alcoholic Drinks
Soft Drinks
Hot Drinks
Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Expansion All Around
Market Overview
Chapter - Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Table: Key Players In Kazakhstan's Food Sector
Table: Key Players In Kazakhstan's Drink Sector
Table: Key Players In Kazakhstan's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Chapter - Company Monitor
Food
Ardager Agricultural Financial Corporation
Konfety Karagandy (Karaganda Confectionery Company)
Drink
Efes Karaganda Brewery
Carlsberg Kazakhstan
Coca-Cola Içecek
Mass Grocery Retail
Vester
Chapter - Demographic Outlook
Table: Kazakhstan's Population By Age Group, - (‘)
Table: Kazakhstan's Population By Age Group, - (% of total)
Table: Kazakhstan's Key Population Ratios, -
Table: Kazakhstan's Rural And Urban Population, -
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Weighting
Table: Weighting
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing
The just-drinks office is currently: Open
Office opening hours
Mon-Thursdays 9:00am-5:30pm
Fridays 9:00am-4:30pm
The office is closed during weekends.
Current time at just-drinks headquarters: 1:56pm (Monday, 20 May 2013)
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