Indonesia Food and Drink Report Q1 2013
Report description
Weakening trade figures in August suggest that Indonesia's strong domestic economy is beginning to feel the effects of the poor external demand conditions. However, from a longer-term perspective, the consumer story in Indonesia continues to be one of the brightest in the world. Wage growth in Indonesia over the past few years has been strong as the economy's growth has begun to translate to higher employment. Minimum wages have been raised by as much as 20% in some cities. With so much room for incomes to grow, there are going to be a lot of opportunities for well placed consumer focused companies over the next few years.
Headline Industry Data
? Food consumption growth for 2013 = +9.0%; CAGR forecast to 2017 = +9.2%.
? Alcoholic drinks volume sales growth for 2013 = +6.7%; CAGR forecast to 2017 = +6.4%.
? Soft drinks volume sales growth for 2013 = +6.7%; CAGR forecast to 2017 = +6.6%.
? Mass grocery retail sales growth for 2013 = +14.9%; CAGR forecast to 2017 = +13.9%.
Key Industry Trends
Heineken Seals Control Of APB: In October 2012, it was reported that the beer giant Heineken had secured full control of Asia Pacific Breweries (APB) after the shareholders of Fraser and Neave (F&N) voted in favour of the firm's SGD5.6bn (US$4.5bn) bid. Heineken has been forced to pay a hefty premium for the business, at 17X earnings before interest tax and amortisation. However, the firm's CEO has stressed that it was 'worth every dollar' owing to the firm's tremendous exposure to some of Asia's most promising beer markets.
Carrefour Exiting Singapore: In August 2012, it was reported that the retail giant Carrefour had announced plans to exit Singapore with the firm revealing it will close its two existing hypermarket outlets by the end of 2012. The move comes after the firm failed to sell the business and continues the firm's process of removing itself from Asian markets in which it is not likely to become one of the top three largest players. Carrefour has failed to build significant market share in Singapore, which we attribute to its higher-end positioning and lack of adaptation to local market conditions. The one real bright spot in Carrefour's South East Asian prospects is the retailer's excellent position in Indonesia. As the current market leader there, the firm is well positioned to maintain a top three position.
Risk To Outlook
One of the more obvious headwinds that Indonesia faces going into 2013 is a slowing regional economy. The ongoing slowdown in China means that regional growth will be subdued compared to the heady rates of 2010-11, and trade in particular is set to suffer.
Table of contents
Chapter - BMI Industry View
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Indonesia Food Industry SWOT
Indonesia Drink Industry SWOT
Indonesia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Chapter - Business Environment
BMI's Core Global Industry Views
Table: Core Views
Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings, Q113 (score out of 10)
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113
Indonesia's Risk/Reward Rating
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Canned Food
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Drink
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format (%)
Trade
Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Chapter - Food
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Fonterra Sees Strong Dairy Potential
Tapping Into The Fast-Food Potential
Market Overview
Food Production
Confectionery
Halal
Agriculture
Organics
Chapter - Drink
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Heineken Seals Control Of APB
Asahi Attracted By Dynamism In Soft Drinks
Market Overview
Soft Drinks
Alcoholic Drinks
Hot Drinks
Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Carrefour Exiting Singapore
Growth Of Minimarkets Poses Threat To Supermarkets
Traditional Retailers Facing Greater Pressure On Market Share
Market Overview
Table: Structure Of Indonesia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector – Estimated Number Of Outlets By Format
Table: Structure Of Indonesia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector – Sales By Format (IDRbn)
Table: Structure Of Indonesia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector – Sales By Format (US$mn)
Table: Average Annual Sales By Format – 2011
Chapter - Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players In Indonesia's Food Sector
Table: Key Players In Indonesia's Drink Sector
Table: Key Players In Indonesia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector, 2012
Chapter - Company Monitor
Food
Indofood Sukses Makmur Terbuka
PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk
Nestlé Indonesia
Mayora Indah Tbk
PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk
Drink
Coca-Cola Amatil (CCA)
Aqua Golden Mississippi (Aqua)
Mass Grocery Retail
Matahari Putra Prima
Carrefour
Hero Supermarket Tbk
Chapter - Demographic Outlook
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Indonesia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Indonesia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Weighting
Table: Weighting
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing
The just-drinks office is currently: Closed
Office opening hours
Mon-Thursdays 9:00am-5:30pm
Fridays 9:00am-4:30pm
The office is closed during weekends.
Current time at just-drinks headquarters: 8:29pm (Tuesday, 21 May 2013)
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