India Retail Report Q1 2013
The Indian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on India's economic outlook of soaring twin deficits in the fiscal and current accounts.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Indian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the risk of a prolonged deflationary slump in the eurozone on the Indian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Indian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
India comes second (out of seven) in BMI's Asia Retail risk/reward ratings, although it underperforms for risk.
Among all retail categories, Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 107.9% between 2013 and 2017, from US$34.79bn to US$72.33bn as India's emerging middle class continues to drive demand for new goods and services, and rural retailing presents expansion opportunities.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the removal of foreign direct investment (FDI) restrictions in multi-brand retail announced in September 2012.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
?? A modest growth print of 5.3% y-o-y in Q4 FY2011/12 (Jan-Mar) and soaring twin deficits in the fiscal and current accounts have convinced consensus to de-rate dramatically India's economic outlook, with most calling for much weaker headline expansion in the current fiscal year. While the current state of play appears dire, BMI still sees sufficient evidence to suggest that the investment cycle has bottomed out, and that economic growth will re-accelerate within a couple of quarters. Our core view is that real GDP growth will come in at an improved 6.9% in FY2012/13, up from a nine-year low of 6.5% in the previous fiscal year.
?? Household spending will represent one area of relative weakness over the coming fiscal year. Having ramped up expenditure in recent years, BMI believes that the current bout of rupee weakness will have a lingering impact on the Indian consumer. We see private consumption growth falling to 5.2% in FY2012/13 from 5.5% in the previous fiscal year.
Table of contents
Chapter - Executive Summary
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
India Retail Business Environment SWOT
India Political SWOT
India Economic SWOT
Chapter - Market Overview
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: India Retail Sales Indicators, 2010-2017
Table: Retail Sector Breakdown By Key Segment, 2013f
Chapter - Regional Retail Outlook
Asia Pacific Retail Outlook
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales, 2010-2017 (%)
Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook, 2010-2017
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings
India's Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail
India Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Leading MGR Players
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2005-2011
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales By Format (US$mn), 2005-2011
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales By Format (INRmn), 2005-2011
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%) – Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: MGR Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Table: Average Outlet Sales By Format – 2011
Chapter - Consumer Electronics
India Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
India Electronics Industry SWOT
Table: Computer Sales, 2009-2016
Table: Total Desktop Sales
Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016
Table: Mobile Communications: Demand, 2009-2016
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016
Chapter - Automotives
India Autos Industry SWOT
Production And Sales
Table: Autos Sales And Production
Table: Autos Trade
Production And Sales
Table: Autos - Passenger Cars
Chapter - Demographic Outlook
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: India's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: India's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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