Hungary Retail Report Q4 2012
Report description
The Hungary Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on Hungary's economic outlook of the government's constrictive policy and the lack of an IMF/EU external financing deal.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Hungarian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the rapidly deteriorating situation in the eurozone on the Hungarian consumer and the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Hungarian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Hungarian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 37% to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 44%. The country comes seventh out of 10 in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it outperforms slightly for risk.
Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be one of the strongest performers through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to reach US$12.72bn in 2012 and to grow faster than overall food sales throughout the forecast period, by almost 44%, to US$18.28bn by 2016. This would take MGR's share of the overall food market from 66% in 2012 to about 70% by the end of the forecast period. Convenience stores will benefit from changing consumer purchasing habits as time pressures take over, with their value forecast to grow by a local currency CAGR of 7.38% in the next five years.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the European Commission (EC)'s decision in March 2012 to give the green light to Auchan's acquisition of Magyar Hipermarket. The EC concluded that the merged company would continue to face strong competition from other market players, and that customers would still have sufficient alternative suppliers in all markets concerned. Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
?? With growth turning sharply negative in the first quarter of 2012, BMI has revised down its fullyear growth forecast for 2012 to -1.2% from -0.5% previously. The rapidly deteriorating situation in the eurozone presents significant headwinds to the Hungarian economy given its heavy trade and investment linkages with Western Europe.
?? The Hungarian consumer is in no position to enjoy a recovery this year, with private demand expected to decline by 2.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) in real terms on the back of tighter credit conditions, rising unemployment, weakened confidence and constrictive fiscal policy. As a Hungary Retail Report Q4 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6 component of real GDP by expenditure, private consumption will pose a 1.4 percentage point (pp) drag on headline growth.
Table of contents
Chapter 1 - Executive Summary
Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis
Retail Business Environment SWOT
Political SWOT
Economic SWOT
Chapter 3 - Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Chapter 4 - Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Retail Indicators
Table: Retail Sales By Segment f
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity
Chapter 5 - Regional Retail Outlook
Central And Eastern Europe Retail Outlook
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales (US$bn unless stated)
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share
Regional Retail Trends
Chapter 6 - Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
Retail Rating
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Chapter 7 - Mass Grocery Retail
Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Leading Retailers
Table: Mass Retail Grocery Market By Number Of Outlets
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value
Table: Value Of Sales Per Outlet
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data and Forecasts
Industry Developments
Chapter 8 - Consumer Electronics
Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Market Overview
Computers
Table: PC Sales
AV Devices
Hungary Retail Report Q
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page
Table: AV Sales
Mobile Handsets
Table: Mobile Communications
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Electronics Market
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview
Industry Developments
Chapter 9 - Automotives
Autos Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Cars
Table: Top BestSelling Models
Fresh Investment
Suppliers
Industry Forecast Scenario
Production
Table: Autos Production
Sales
Table: Autos Sales
Chapter 10 - Hungary Demographic Outlook
Table: Population By Age Group (')
Table: Population By Age Group (% of total)
Table: Key Population Ratios
Table: Rural And Urban Population
Chapter 11 - BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
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