Hungary Retail Report Q1 2013
Report description
The Hungary Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags up short-term concerns about the impact on Hungary's economic outlook of the failure of the government thus far to reach an external financing arrangement with the IMF and the EU.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Hungarian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of continued deterioration in economic activity in the eurozone on the Hungarian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Hungarian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Hungarian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 25% between 2013 and 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 33%. The country comes seventh out of 10 in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it outperforms slightly for risk.
Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be one of the strongest performers through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to reach US$13.77bn in 2013 and to grow faster than overall food sales between 2013 and 2016 (by almost 26%, compared with 21% for overall food sales) to US$17.33bn. This would take MGR's share of the overall food market from 66.9% in 2013 to 69.9% by 2016. Convenience stores will benefit from changing consumer purchasing habits as time pressures take over, with sales forecast to increase by 32.5% to US$1.91bn by 2016.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the European Commission (EC)'s decision in March 2012 to give the green light to Auchan's acquisition of Magyar Hipermarket. The EC concluded that the merged company would continue to face strong competition from other market players, and that customers would still have sufficient alternative suppliers in all markets concerned.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
?? BMI has revised down its 2013 growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.5% previously. The continued deterioration in economic activity in the eurozone, and the failure of the government thus far to reach an external financing arrangement with the IMF/EU, continue to weigh on all areas of the economy.
?? Household consumption declined by 1.6% y-o-y in the second quarter of 2012, which is a pickup in the pace of decline relative to the 0.7% contraction registered in the first quarter. BMI envisages another full year of contraction for household consumption in 2012 to the tune of 2.3% (the fifth year of real decline in the past six years).
Table of contents
Chapter - Executive Summary
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Hungary Retail Business Environment SWOT
Hungary Political SWOT
Hungary Economic SWOT
Chapter - Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Retail Indicators, 2009-2016
Table: Retail Sales By Segment, 2013f
Macroeconomic Outlook
Chapter - Regional Retail Outlook
Central And Eastern Europe Retail Outlook
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2009-2016
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn, unless stated)
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016
Regional Retail Trends
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings
Hungary's Retail Rating
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail
Hungary Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Leading Retailers
Table: Mass Retail Grocery Market By Number Of Outlets, 2001-2011
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value, 2005-2011
Table: Value Of Sales Per Outlet, 2011
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data and Forecasts
Industry Developments
Chapter - Consumer Electronics
Hungary Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Market Overview
Computers
Table: PC Sales, 2009-2016
AV Devices
Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016
Mobile Handsets
Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Electronics Market
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016
Industry Developments
Chapter - Automotives
Hungary Autos Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Table: Hungary – Top 10 Best-Selling Models 2011
Industry Forecast Scenario
Production
Table: Hungary Autos Production, 2009-2016
Sales
Table: Hungary Autos Sales, 2009-2016
Trade
Table: Hungary Autos Trade, 2009-2016
Chapter - Demographic Outlook
Table: Hungary's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Hungary's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Hungary's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Hungary's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
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