Germany Food and Drink Report Q1 2013
Report description
The continued risk of a eurozone break-up scenario continues to cloud Germany's economic outlook. This would lead to an immediate collapse in fixed investment and hit external demand for German exports very hard. Even with this scenario remaining outside of our baseline view, uncertainty over the ongoing eurozone crisis will keep business and consumer confidence levels subdued, thus hurting investment. Certainly, German consumption will not come to the rescue of periphery eurozone states over the next few years, as households remain cautious and the government keeps focused on fiscal consolidation.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
?? 2013 per capita food consumption = +3.3%; forecast to 2017 = +16.0%.
?? 2013 alcoholic drink sales = +1.0%; forecast to 2017 = +4.5%.
?? 2013 soft drink sales = +3.8%; forecast to 2017 = +16.6%.
?? 2013 mass grocery retail sales = +6.0%; forecast to 2017 = +28.9%.
Key Company Trends
DMK Aims to Expand Through Sunval Acquisition: In summer 2012 German dairy giant DMK acquired organic baby food manufacturer Sunval from German private equity firm BWK for an undisclosed amount. Sunval's sales increased about 36% year-on-year to EUR37mn (US$45.6mn) in 2011. Sunval is currently only manufactured and sold in Germany and is the largest producer of organic private-label baby food, according to DMK, supplying both specialist retailers and a large number of drug store chains. DMK is now looking to grow the Sunval brand in Europe and other international markets.
Ahold Launches in Germany with C-store Concept: Dutch retail giant Ahold opened its first store in Germany in September 2012, a c-store under the AH To Go banner in Aachen. A second shop is to open in Essen later in the year. The move into Germany is part of Albert Heijn's strategy of extending its overseas operations having already opened six Albert Heijn supermarkets in Belgium. The retailer aims to have 150 AH To Go stores in the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany by 2017. Although Ahold acknowledges the difficulties of trying to launch in Germany with larger store formats which are already well established, the retailer strongly believes that its convenience store concept focusing on ‘food to go’ has not been seen in Germany to date and so the company is bringing something new to the market.
Key Risks To Outlook
Outlook for German Exports: The main risk to our growth forecasts come from the outlook for German exports, which is clouded by question marks over Asian demand and China's economic rebalancing, which will not be a smooth process. The trajectory of the euro poses another risk to our positive net exports view.
Table of contents
Chapter - BMI Industry View
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Germany Food Industry SWOT
Germany Drink Industry SWOT
Germany Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Chapter - Business Environment
BMI's Core Global Industry Views
Table: Core Views
Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Western Europe Q Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings (scores out of )
Table: Western Europe Q Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Germany Food & Drink Business Environment Rating
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Germany – Macroeconomic Forecasts
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -
Prepared Food
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables
Table: Snack Foods
Table: Pasta
Table: Dairy
Table: Meat
Table: Fish
Table: Oils and Fats
Drink
Soft Drinks And Bottled Water
Table: Soft Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drink Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drink Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Germany MGR Sector – Sales Value by Format – Historical Data & Forecasts
Trade
Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance – Historical Data & Forecasts
Chapter - Food
Key Industry Trends And Developments
DMK Aims to Expand Through Sunval Acquisition
Oetker Builds up Baking Business
Muller Teams Up With Pepsico For Push Into US Yoghurt Market
Barilla Announcements Fit With Branded Focus
UB Snack Unit Better Fit For Intersnack Than Kellogg
Competition In Ice Cream Heating Up
Halloren Looking Outside Of Germany For Chocolate Growth
Convenience Hits The Spot
Organic Food Receives Boost After Dioxin Food Scandal
Arla's International Ambitions Come To Fruition With Hansa-Milch
DMK Urges Further Dairy Sector Consolidation
Katjes Looking For Stronger International Growth
Market Overview
Food Sector
Organics
Dairy
Chapter - Drink
Key Industry Trends And Developments
A-B InBev Remains Committed to Europe
Henkell Positions For Sparkling Growth With Cava Acquisition
German Beer Exports Have Huge Potential
Could Coca-Cola Enterprises Ignore Germany?
Wine Sector Needs To Consolidate To Compete
Consolidation Moves In Soft Drinks
Winemakers Eye Asian Markets
Market Overview
Soft Drinks
Alcoholic Drinks
Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Ahold Launches in Germany with C-store Concept
Metro to Reveal Fate of Real by End
Tengelmann to Launch Grocery Stores in Russia
Metro Sells UK Cash & Carry Operation
Metro CEO Bows To Pressure; More Radical Reorganisation Needed
Tengelmann Distances Itself From A&P In US
Grocery Retail Competition Probe Launched
Expansion Across Sectors To Hedge Bets
Market Overview
Table: Structure Of Germany's Mass Grocery Retail Market – Estimated Number Of Outlets
Table: Structure Of Germany's Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales Format By Value (US$bn)
Table: Structure Of Germany's Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales Format By Value (EURmn)
Chapter - Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players in Germany's Food Sector ()
Table: Key Players in Germany's Drink Sector ()
Table: Key Players In Germany's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Chapter - Company Monitor
Food
Oetker Group
DMK
Haribo
Lieken Group
Drink
Emig GmbH & Co KG (GerberEmig Group)
Radeberger Group (Oetker Group)
Anheuser-Busch InBev Germany
Mass Grocery Retail
Lidl Group
Rewe Group
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, - (')
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, - (% of total)
Table: Germany's Key Population Ratios, -
Table: Germany's Rural And Urban Population, -
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Weighting
Table: Weighting
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing
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Office opening hours
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Fridays 9:00am-4:30pm
The office is closed during weekends.
Current time at just-drinks headquarters: 9:57pm (Wednesday, 22 May 2013)
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