Gabon Food and Drink Report Q1 2013

BMI View: Relative to a number of other Central and West African economies, our outlook for growth in Gabon’s food, drink and retail sectors is fairly modest. Compared with a lot of our favourite regional consumer economies, Gabon’s outlook is tempered by a relatively modest population of about 1.5mn. Unlike a lot of Sub-Saharan Africa, generating scale is difficult. Premiumisation will therefore have to play a more important role in driving growth.

Key Forecasts

? Per capita food consumption growth in 2013: 2.7%. Compound annual growth to 2017: 2.6%.

? Mass grocery retail sales growth in 2013: 13.1%. Compound annual growth to 2017: 13.0%.

? Beer volume sales growth in 2013: 3.9%. Compound annual growth to 2017: 4.6%.

Key Trends

Population Growth: In line with the wider Sub-Saharan African region, a major factor in West and Central Africa’s appeal to investors is its favourable population dynamics. Nigeria, with its massive population, leads the pack in this regard. Gabon is at the opposite end of the scale. Similar to most of its regional peers, it will enjoy very strong population growth – the size of the country’s population is forecast to increase by 75% out to 2050. Also in keeping with broader regional dynamics, Gabon has a very young age profile, with an estimated 46% of the country’s population younger than 20 in 2012. However, growth is coming from a very low base. Gabon’s population was expected to have reached 1.6mn in 2012, and this marks it out as significantly less attractive than many of its neighbours.

Formalisation of Retailing: Throughout the region, our forecasts for mass grocery retail sales growth outstrip our forecasts for food consumption growth, although it should be noted that both are broadly impressive. The outperformance of retail will be a result of the ongoing formalisation of the sector and the fact that it is, in most cases, coming from an exceptionally low base. The addition of just a few modern retail outlets, which cause shoppers to trade up and away from traditional independent stores and marketplaces, will have a massive impact on growth in the sector. In Gabon, we estimate that only around 3% to 4% of grocery retail sales are accounted for by the organised sector, and this provides strong prospects for growth in spite of the limited size of the potential audience.

Risk/Reward Ratings: Gabon falls in 13th place out of the 13 regional markets that are ranked for Sub- Saharan Africa within BMI’s Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings. The country’s rewards score is low by regional standards – a product of relatively high existing spending levels and a small population. The country also falls below the regional average in terms of risk, albeit just. This combines to give Gabon the lowest score within the overall regional table.

Table of contents

Chapter - BMI Industry View

Chapter - Business Environment

BMI's Core Global Industry Views

Table: Core Views

Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Ratings

Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Q Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings

Macroeconomic Outlook

Chapter - Industry Forecast

Food, Drink, Mass Grocery Retail

Food

Table: Food Consumption

Drink

Table: Alcoholic Drinks

Table: Soft Drinks

Mass Grocery Retail

Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales

Chapter - Market Overview

Looking Beyond Ghana And Nigeria For Opportunities In West Africa

SABMiller's Sechaba Breweries: SSA's Most Efficient Beer Company?

Chapter - Demographic Outlook

Table: Gabon's Population By Age Group, - (‘)

Table: Gabon's Population By Age Group, - (% of total)

Table: Gabon's Key Population Ratios, -

Table: Gabon's Rural And Urban Population, -

Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology

Table: Rewards

Table: Risks

Weighting

Table: Weighting

Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary

Food & Drink

Mass Grocery Retail

Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Sourcing

Related research categories

By sector: General drinks

By market: Gabon (in Africa)