Estonia Food and Drink Report 2013

Estonia's consumer outlook remains broadly positive, underpinned by falling unemployment and rising wages. Nevertheless, the private label has become an important part of grocery shopping, supported by the wide range of goods promoted by leading mass grocery retail players in the country. The maturity of many food and drinks categories will also contribute to relatively modest volume and value growth of the overall grocery market.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

? 2013 per capita food consumption: +1.51%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2017: +1.78%.

? 2013 alcoholic drinks sales (volume): +0.01%; forecast CAGR to 2017: +0.75%.

? 2013 soft drinks sales (volume): +2.18%; forecast CAGR to 2017: +1.02%.

? 2013 mass grocery retail sales: +2.42%; forecast CAGR to 2017: +4.43%.

Key Company Trends

Project Promotes Local Foods: In August 2012, local press reported that Estonian agricultural producers, chefs and other activists are urging local communities to eat domestic food products. Their project, 'Local Food on the Tables of Local Communities', has been in operation for three years. As part of the scheme, communities were shown that using locally produced foods in school meals is no more expensive than using imported ingredients.

Yields Higher Despite Late Harvest: Statistics Estonia reported in September 2012 that the harvest of key agricultural commodities had been postponed but that yields were higher than in 2011. By mid- September, only 80% of areas planted to cereal grains had been harvested, with this figure falling to less than 50% for rapeseed, turnips and potatoes. In terms of yields, one hectare of harvested cereals yielded more than 3,743kg, a figure not seen since 2007.

Key Risks to Outlook

External Environment Continuing To Pose Downside Risks: While the domestic consumption outlook remains relatively bright, Estonia's exposure to the eurozone crisis could have a more pronounced effect on its economic growth, which would eventually trickle down to the consumer level. Inflationary pressure also poses risks to our current forecasts. For the time being, we forecast Estonia's consumer price inflation to average 3.8% in 2013, down from 4.3% in 2012. An unexpected increase in commodity prices would drive this figure upward, constraining discretionary spending.

Table of contents

Chapter - BMI Industry View

Chapter - SWOT Analysis

Estonia Food Industry SWOT

Estonia Drink Industry SWOT

Estonia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT

Chapter - Business Environment Outlook

BMI's Core Global Industry Views

Table: Core Views

CEE Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings

Table: Central & Eastern Europe Q Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings

Table: Central & Eastern Europe Q Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings (scores out of )

Estonia's Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating

Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Economic Activity

Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario

Consumer Outlook

Food

Food Consumption

Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Canned Food

Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Confectionery

Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Dairy

Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Pasta

Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Processed Foods

Table: Snack Foods Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Meat

Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Drink

Alcoholic Drinks

Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Soft Drinks

Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Hot Drinks

Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Table: Hot Drinks Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Mass Grocery Retail

Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data And Forecasts

Trade

Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Chapter - Food

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Producers Promote Locally Made Foods

Premia Foods' Q Turnover Falls

Estonian Yields Higher In , Despite Late Harvest

Downturn Results In Company Exits

Ethanol Production Targeted

Market Overview

Food Consumption

Food Processing

Leading Food Producers

Meat Processing

Confectionery

Agriculture

Chapter - Drink

Key Industry Trends and Developments

Carlsberg Initiates Compulsory Purchase of Baltika Breweries

Alcoholic Drinks Continue To Suffer

Producers Expand Their Portfolio Offerings

Market Overview

Alcoholic Drinks

Beer

Spirits

Soft Drinks

Hot Drinks

Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Leading Retailer Doubles Profit In Q

Market Overview

Leading Retailers

Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets

Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Sector By Sales Value By Format (US$mn)

Table: Average Annual Sales Per Outlet By Format,

Chapter - Competitive Landscape

Key Players

Table: Key Players In Estonia's Food & Drink Sector

Chapter - Company Monitor

Food

Valio Eesti AS

Paulig Baltic AS

Kalev Chocolate Factory

Rakvere Lihakombinaat

Drink

Saku Õlletehas

Liviko AS

A Le Coq

Mass Grocery Retail

Rimi Baltic AB

Maxima

Prisma Peremarket

Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology

Table: Rewards

Table: Risks

Weighting

Table: Weighting

Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary

Food & Drink

Mass Grocery Retail

Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Sourcing

Related research categories

By sector: General drinks

By market: Estonia (in Europe)