Emerging Restaurant Concepts - US - December 2010

Is it over yet? That’s the question about the “Great Recession” being asked by consumers and businesses. Few are as hopeful that the economy has righted itself as are restaurateurs. Higher unemployment, lower disposable income and shaky consumer confidence meant Americans dined out less often and spent less than they did prior to the recession. Restaurants adjusted menus, pricing, service styles or whatever was necessary to survive.

In this report, Mintel provides analysis and insight on the recession’s impact on dining habits and restaurant operations. It examines what we eat, when we eat, and where we eat and offers a look at how restaurants may change in the coming years.

Table of contents

Scope and Themes
What you need to know
Data sources
Mintel Menu Insights
Consumer survey data
Advertising creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
Executive Summary
The recession may officially be over but restaurants still feel its effects
Restaurateurs aren’t sure how much and how permanently consumer attitudes and lifestyles have changed
Government at all levels is indicating a new determination to regulate how and what we eat
What are the forces shaping future restaurant concept development?
How restaurants market themselves and their food has changed dramatically
On the menu: Mintel’s data track what’s hot
Usage and spending patterns: Who dines out?
Where we dine and why
What are you having for dinner?
What is it we want?
Insights and Opportunities
Key points
Opportunity knocks
Indulge me…
…but help me eat more healthy
Fast casual benefits from current trends
Opportunities in new dayparts
Local news
A huge opportunity in new media
Inspire Insights
Trend: Guiding Choice
Figure 1: Attitudes toward nutritional disclosure and brand importance, September 2010
Market Drivers
The recession proves to be more resilient than expected
Figure 2: Unemployment and underemployment rates, January 2007-November 2010
Figure 3: U.S. real disposable personal income growth, January 2007-October 2010
Figure 4: Food away from home: Total expenditures, 2000-09
Coupon clipping makes a surprising comeback
A crisis of confidence
Figure 5: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, March 2007-October 2010
Restaurateurs get discouraged, too
Figure 6: NRA Performance Indices, January 2009-October 2010
Restaurants as a way of life
Figure 7: Share of food away from home purchases, 1990-2009
Fast casual: Where convenience and value meet
Government as nutrition watchdog
Figure 8: U.S. obesity rates, by state, 2009
Emerging Concepts: Movers and Shapers
Keep it simple
The price/value balance
Emerging Concepts: Styles and Substance
Value as service style
Value as ingredient quality
Value in health
Figure 9: Attitudes toward nutritional disclosure, September 2010
Figure 10: Attitudes toward nutritional disclosure, by gender, September 2010
For some healthy means meatless
Figure 11: Attitudes toward nutritional disclosure, by age, September 2010
Emerging Concepts: You Know When It’s Real
The value of “fresh”; the power of “local”
Figure 12: Interest in local and sustainability, September 2010
Figure 13: Interest in local and sustainability, by age, September 2010
The value of corporate responsibility: Sustainable, organic and green
Figure 14: Interest in local and sustainability, by age, September 2010
Figure 15: Interest in local and sustainability, by household income, September 2010
The value of brands
Figure 16: Importance of brand name on menus, by age, September 2010
Emerging Concepts: External Factors
The value of technology
The wild card: Government regulation
Figure 17: Attitudes toward nutritional disclosure, by gender, September 2010
Marketing Strategies
Key points
Channel surfing: Digital media changed the game
Figure 18: Carl’s Jr. Invitation, posted on its webpage December 15, 2009
Figure 19: Carlsjr.com monthly visitors, October 2009-September 2010
Figure 20: Epic Burger email social media links
Figure 21: Social media usage, by age, September 2010
Connections made and broken
Figure 22: Burger King’s “Whopper Sacrifice” online promotion
More than just friends
Figure 23: Social media usage, by gender, September 2010
Figure 24: T.G.I. Friday’s “Woody” promotion
Figure 25: White Castle Facebook promotion
Dealing with it
Figure 26: Wow Bao Facebook promotion
Foursquare—Checking in
Email me
Figure 27: Email as a promotional tool
Join the Groupon
Figure 28: Sample Groupon restaurant promotion
The changing roles of traditional media
Figure 29: U.S. adspend, by sector, September 2010
Figure 30: Top 10 marketing claims at Top Chef restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2010
Figure 31: McDonald’s Angus Third Pounder commercial
Figure 32: Applebee’s “Flavor Loaded Steaks” commercial
Figure 33: Denny’s “$2, $4, $6, $8 Value Menu” commercial
Menu Insights Analysis—Emerging Menu Items
Cheese is the new wine
Figure 34: Top 10 menu items at Top Chef restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2007-Q3 2010
Small indulgences
Figure 35: Fastest-growing menu items at Top Chef restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2007-Q3 2010
What we’re made of
Figure 36: Top 10 ingredients at Top Chef restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2007-Q3 2010
Figure 37: Fastest-growing ingredients at Top Chef restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2007-Q3 2010
Menu Insights Analysis—Emerging Flavors
Everybody loves bacon
Figure 38: Top 10 ingredient flavors at Top Chef restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2007-Q3 2010
On the horizon
Figure 39: Fastest-growing ingredient flavors at Top Chef restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2007-Q3 2010
Menu Insights Analysis—Emerging Menu Marketing Strategies
Fresh thinking
Figure 40: Top 10 marketing claims at Top Chef restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2007-Q3 2010
Figure 41: Fastest-growing ingredient flavors at Top Chef restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2007-Q3 2010
Restaurant Usage
Consumer demand remains strong
Figure 42: Restaurant usage, September 2010
Millennials: The restaurant industry’s key clientele
Figure 43: Restaurant usage, by age, September 2010
Income often determines dining choices, except with fast food
Figure 44: Restaurant usage, by household income, September 2010
Changes in Restaurant Spending
Consumers are going out to eat, but value is important
Figure 45: Restaurant usage compared to last year, September 2010
The gender gap on spending
Figure 46: Restaurant usage compared to last year, by gender, September 2010
Spending less maybe, but cutting back less
Figure 47: Restaurant usage compared to last year, by age, September 2010
Haves and have-nots
Figure 48: Restaurant usage compared to last year, by household income, September 2010
It’s the economy. And the menu. And the prices.
Figure 49: Reasons for spending less this year, September 2010
Figure 50: Reasons for spending less this year, by gender, September 2010
Figure 51: Reasons for spending less this year, by household income, September 2010
The 2011 forecast: Better but not easier
Figure 52: Anticipated changes for next year, September 2010
Figure 53: Anticipated changes for next year, by age, September 2010
Figure 54: Anticipated changes for next year, by household income, September 2010
Dining Out Selection Factors
Good food alone is not enough
Figure 55: General and main reasons for dining out, September 2010
Figure 56: General reasons for dining out, by gender, September 2010
Figure 57: Main reasons for dining out, by gender, September 2010
All the world a stage
Figure 58: General reasons for dining out, by age, September 2010
Figure 59: Main reasons for dining out, by age, September 2010
Great expectations
Figure 60: General reasons for dining out, by household income, September 2010
The rich are different than you and me, F. Scott Fitzgerald wrote
Figure 61: Main reasons for dining out, by household income, September 2010
Ordering Behavior
All-American dining
Figure 62: Menu items typically ordered, by gender, September 2010
The best of intentions
Figure 63: Eating healthier next year, September 2010
Figure 64: Eating healthier next year, by gender, September 2010
What does healthy mean?
Figure 65: Ways to eat healthier, September 2010
Figure 66: Ways to eat healthier, by gender, September 2010
With age comes moderation
Figure 67: Ways to eat healthier, by age, September 2010
Increasing Restaurant Usage
Just tell us what you want
Figure 68: Increasing restaurant usage, September 2010
Figure 69: Increasing restaurant usage, by gender, September 2010
Answering the call for snack options
Figure 70: Increasing restaurant usage, by age, September 2010
Money changes everything
Figure 71: Increasing restaurant usage, by household income, September 2010
Cluster Analysis
Healthers
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Utilitarians
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Experiencers
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Cluster characteristics
Figure 72: Emerging restaurant concepts clusters, September 2010
Figure 73: Restaurant usage, by emerging restaurant concepts clusters, September 2010
Figure 74: Reasons for dining out, by emerging restaurant concepts clusters, September 2010
Figure 75: Increasing restaurant usage, by emerging restaurant concepts clusters, September 2010
Figure 76: Attitudes toward dining out, by emerging restaurant concepts clusters, September 2010
Cluster demographics
Figure 77: Emerging restaurant concepts clusters, by gender, September 2010
Figure 78: Emerging restaurant concepts clusters, by age, September 2010
Figure 79: Emerging restaurant concepts clusters, by household income, September 2010
Figure 80: Emerging restaurant concepts clusters, by race, September 2010
Figure 81: Emerging restaurant concepts clusters, by Hispanic origin, September 2010
Cluster methodology
Appendix—Trade Associations

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