Egypt Retail Report Q4 2012

This Egypt Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the economic impact of the country’s budget deficit hitting record lows and monetary policy constrained by the need to avoid further capital outflows.

We examine how best to maximise returns in the Egyptian retail market while minimising investment risk and explore the effects of the deteriorating global economy on the Egyptian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Egyptian retail sector as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

Egyptian per-capita consumer spending is forecast to more than double by 2016, compared with a regional growth average of only 2%. The country comes last in BMI’s Middle East and Africa Retail risk/reward ratings, although it outperforms slightly for Reward.

Among all retail categories, autos will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with unit sales forecast to increase by 126% between 2012 and 2016, from 185,608 units to 312,555 units. However, sales growth in the short term is likely to be constrained, with latest automobile sales figures from Ghabbour Auto (which has a 40% share of the Egyptian market) showing the number of units sold between January-March 2012 remaining below 2009 levels.

Car ownership in Egypt is estimated at around 23 cars per 1,000 people, compared with 35 per 1,000 in Iran and more than 100 per 1,000 in Saudi Arabia, which means the country has considerable room for growth. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in trade tariff reform between Egypt and the EU, which will open the market for more overseas manufacturers and expand export opportunities for domestic producers.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views: ?? BMI has revised down its 2013 real GDP growth forecast. In light of ongoing uncertainty in the political environment, we believe investment will remain weaker than previously anticipated. We project the economy expanding 3.1% in FY2012/13, compared with an estimated 2.3% in FY2011/12.

Throughout Egypt's political turmoil, household spending has remained relatively strong. According to latest data, private consumption – which accounts for more than 70% of the economy – expanded 7.3% y-o-y and 4.5% in real terms in FYQ3 and FYQ2 respectively. Strong remittance inflows are playing an integral role in this respect, with latest data showing private transfer credits hitting an all-time high of US$4.8bn between January-March. BMI expects these capital inflows to remain relatively strong over the coming quarters.

Table of contents

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis

Egypt Retail Business Environment SWOT

Egypt Political SWOT

Egypt Economic SWOT

Chapter 3 - Market Overview

Current Trends

Key Players

Chapter 4 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Consumer Outlook

Retail Growth Outlook

Table: Egypt’s Retail Sales Indicators, -

Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, f

Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Egypt – Economic Activity

Chapter 5 - Regional Retail Outlook

Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Trends, -

Table: Middle East And Africa Regional Retail Sales, - (US$bn)

Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales, - (%)

Current Trends

Chapter 6 - Risk/Reward Ratings

Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Ratings

Table: Regional Retail Risk/Reward Ratings

Egypt’s Retail Rating

Limits To Potential Returns

Risks To Realisation of Returns

Chapter 7 - Mass Grocery Retail

Egypt Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT

Market Overview

Leading Retailers

Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format, %

Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts

Industry Developments

Chapter 8 - Consumer Electronics

Egypt Consumer Electronics Market SWOT

Market Overview

Computers

Table: PC Sales, -

AV

Table: AV Sales, -

Mobile Handsets

Table: Mobile Communications, -

Industry Forecast Scenario

Consumer Electronics Market

Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, -

Industry Developments

Chapter 9 - Automotives

Egypt Auto Industry SWOT

Industry Forecast Scenario

Sales

Table: Egypt Autos Sales

Trade

Table: Egypt Autos Trade

Company Developments

Passenger Cars

Table: Top Best Selling Models in Egypt, January-October

Chapter 10 - Demographic Outlook

Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, - (')

Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, - (% of total)

Table: Egypt's Key Population Ratios, -

Table: Egypt's Rural And Urban Population, -

Chapter 11 - BMI Methodology

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Sources

Related research categories

By sector: Retail (in Off-trade)

By market: Egypt (in Africa)