Czech Republic Retail Report Q1 2013
The Czech Republic Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concern about the impact on the country's economic outlook of the government's sustained fiscal austerity drive.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Czech retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the ongoing eurozone sovereign debt crisis on the Czech consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Czech retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Czech per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by a modest 10% between 2013 and 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 33%. The country comes second (out of 10) in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, and notably outperforms for Risk. Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with BMI forecasting sales to expand by more than 20%, from US$15.34bn in 2013 to US$18.48bn by 2016. Through to 2016, we expect the proportional contribution of supermarkets and hypermarkets to remain dominant, with premiumisation momentum expected to pick up in line with the pre-crisis trend.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the fact that the Czech Republic, which joined the EU in May 2004, has a reasonably open economy compared with some neighbouring CEE markets, and some companies from outside the region continue to transfer part of their business to the Czech Republic to reduce costs and take advantage of the domestic market.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
?? We estimate the Czech economy to have remained in recession in 2012 to the tune of 0.7 %before recovering to 0.8% real GDP growth in 2013. The ongoing eurozone sovereign debt crisis will continue to depress domestic activity in the Czech Republic via weaker exports and investment. Meanwhile, the government's sustained fiscal austerity drive will feed through to lower household and government spending.
?? BMI estimates private consumption to have fallen by 3.5% in 2012, posing a 1.6-percentagepoint (pp) drag on real GDP. In 2013, while we still forecast a contraction in consumer spending as uncertainty surrounding the future of the eurozone remains high, our forecast for a 0.5% drop in real private consumption will drag on real GDP growth by only 0.2pp.
?? Credit growth to households remains relatively lacklustre, coming in at 4.2% y-o-y in July 2012, out of which only 17.5% is consumer credit, versus 70.9% accounting for lending for house purchases. This is evident in real retail sales, which fell by 0.8% y-o-y in August 2012, according to data released by the Czech Statistical Office.
Table of contents
Chapter - Executive Summary
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Czech Republic Retail Business Environment SWOT
Czech Republic Political SWOT
Czech Republic Economic SWOT
Chapter - Market Overview
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Czech Republic Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016
Table: Retail Sales By Segment, 2013f
Table: Czech Republic – Economic Activity
Chapter - Regional Retail Outlook
Central And Eastern Europe Retail Outlook
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2009-2016
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn, unless stated)
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016
Regional Retail Trends
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings
Czech Republic's Retail Rating
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail
Czech Republic Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Table: Structure Of The MGR Market By Number Of Outlets, 2004-2011
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, 2011 And 2021 (% of total)
Table: Structure Of The MGR Market By Value, 2004-2011
Table: Value Sales Per Outlet, 2011e
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts
Chapter - Consumer Electronics
Czech Republic Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Table: Top Four Czech Electronics Retailers, Revenue 2008-2009 (CZKbn)
Table: PC Sales, 2008-2016
Table: AV Sales
Table: Analogue Verus Digital TV Subscribers
Table: Mobile Communications
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Electronics Market
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview
Chapter - Automotives
Czech Republic Autos Industry SWOT
Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - Passenger Cars 2011
Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - Passenger Cars Jan-Aug
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Czech Autos Production, 2009-2016
Table: Czech Autos Sales, 2009-2016
Table: Czech Autos Trade, 2009-2016
Chapter - Demographic Data
Table: The Czech Republic's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: The Czech Republic's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: The Czech Republic's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: The Czech Republic's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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