Croatia Retail Report Q4 2012
Report description
The Croatia Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market but flags up short-term anxieties about the potential impact on Croatia’s economic outlook. A combination of fiscal retrenchment by the Kukuriku coalition government and depressed private consumption has raised concerns.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Croatian retail market while minimising investment risk. It also explores the impact of the increasingly precarious looking eurozone macroeconomic environment on the Croatian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
We also analyse the growth and risk management strategies being employed by leading players in the Croatian retail sector as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the market. Croatian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by a modest 15% through to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 44%. The country comes last in BMI’s Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it outperforms significantly in the risk component. Among all retail categories, automotives will be the outperformer through to 2016, with BMI forecasting unit sales to increase by 24% during this period, from 48,040 units in 2012 to 59,658 units by 2016. Croatia is the second-largest car market in the countries of former Yugoslavia in terms of market share and the number of cars per capita.
The country is enjoying some success with niche electric car production. DOK-ING and Rimac Automobili have exhibited electric concept cars at the Frankfurt Motor Show. Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views: ?? BMI holds to its forecast for Croatia’s economy to post a full-year contraction of 1.5% in real GDP terms before recovering to 1.2% growth in 2013. This will come as a result of governmentimposed fiscal austerity which will feed through to weaker consumer spending and fixed capital formation.
?? BMI forecasts consumer spending to fall by 1.0% in 2012, after meagre growth of 0.2% in 2011, before recovering to 1.6% in 2013 as the situation in the eurozone picks up and Croatia’s EU accession occurs. We forecast the unemployment rate to average 20.0% in 2012, while wage growth remains weak and the household debt load is high at about 40% of GDP. Croatia Retail Report Q4 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6
?? The Croatian retail sector will continue to face tough challenges. Data from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics (CBS) show retail sales volumes, in real terms, decreased by 2.1% month-on-month (m-o-m) in March. Year-on-year (y-o-y) retail sales grew by 1.1% in the month. In value terms, retail trade decreased 1.3% sequentially, moving up by 3% on an annual basis. The six-month moving average of growth in the real retail trade index turned negative in April after 18 months of positive growth.
Table of contents
Chapter 1 - Executive Summary
Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis
Croatia Retail Business Environment SWOT
Croatia Political SWOT
Croatia Economic SWOT
Chapter 3 - Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Chapter 4 - Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Retail Sales Indicators
Table: Retail Sales By Key Sector f
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity
Chapter 5 - Regional Retail Outlook
Central And Eastern Europe Retail Outlook
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales (US$bn unless stated)
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share
Regional Retail Trends
Chapter 6 - Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
Croatia’s Retail Rating
Rewards
Risks
Chapter 7 - Mass Grocery Retail
Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Leading Players
Table: MGR Sector By Number Of Outlets
Table: MGR Market by Value
Table: Estimated Value Of Sales Per Outlet (US$mn)
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: MGR Value Sales By Format
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type (% of total)
Industry Developments
Chapter 8 - Consumer Electronics
Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Market Overview
Computers
Table: PC Sales
Croatia Retail Report Q
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page
Audio/Video
Table: AV DeviceSales
Mobile Communications
Table: Mobile Communications
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Consumer Electronics Sales (US$mn)
Industry Developments
Chapter 9 - OTC Pharmaceuticals
Pharmaceuticals Industry SWOT
Market Summary
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: OTC Medicine Sales
Industry Developments
Chapter 10 - Demographic Outlook
Table: Population By Age Group (‘)
Table: Population By Age Group (% of total)
Table: Key Population Ratios
Table: Rural/ Urban Population Split
Chapter 11 - BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
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