Croatia Food and Drink Report Q1 2013

Food consumption is expected to increase steadily over our five-year forecast period, reaching a projected HRK14.17bn by 2017, which represents a modest local currency compound annual growth rate of 2.4% on 2012 levels. The overall value will remain low by Western European standards. Croatia’s subdued longer-term demographic outlook will play a part in such market dynamics. In 2012, we expect that food consumption will have increased slightly, by 0.5% in local currency terms. This outlook is based on the expected continuation of a challenging economic situation, including high unemployment and a VAT increase, which will continue to negatively impact consumer confidence and thus also favour cheaper private label products.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

2013 per capita food consumption = +2.3%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2017 = +2.7%

2013 alcoholic drinks value sales = +2.6%; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +3.0%

2013 soft drinks value sales = +5.0%; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +5.9%

2013 mass grocery retail = +4.1%; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +5.5%

Key Company Trends

Agrokor Expects 5% Rise In 2012 Revenue: In October 2012, Croatian food and drink group Agrokor said it was forecasting a 5% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in its 2012 revenues, to EUR4bn (US$5.18bn). In Serbia, where the group owns mass grocery retail chain Idea, sales for the year are projected to hit EUR800mn (US$1bn), according to the company’s executive vice president for retail.

Carlsberg Brews New Hajducko Beer: In August 2012, Danish brewer Carlsberg unveiled a new beer brand for the Croatian market, according to Balkans Business News. The beer, called Hajducko, a word with local origins, is targeted at the Dalmatian region.

Key Risks To Outlook

Eurozone Slowdown: A more pronounced slowdown in eurozone growth than we are currently forecasting would weigh considerably on Croatian growth. The country is heavily reliant on the external market for growth, particularly while government expenditures are dragged down by fiscal austerity and as consumers struggle to bounce back from the global recession.

Table of contents

Chapter 1 - BMI Industry View

Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis

Croatia Food Industry SWOT

Croatia Drink Industry SWOT

Croatia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT

Chapter 3 - Business Environment

BMI’s Core Global Industry Views

Table: Core Views

CEE Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings

Table: Central & Eastern Europe Q Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings

Table: Central & Eastern Europe Q Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings (scores out of )

Croatia’s Food And Drink Risk/Reward Ratings

Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Economic Activity

Chapter 4 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Consumer Outlook

Food

Food Consumption

Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Confectionery

Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Canned Food

Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Pasta

Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Meat

Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Other Processed Foods

Table: Jams/Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Dairy

Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Trade

Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Drink

Alcoholic Drinks

Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Soft Drinks

Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Hot Drinks

Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Mass Grocery Retail

Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type (% of total)

Chapter 5 - Food

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Agrokor Expects % Rise In Revenue

McDonald’s Investing In Expansion In Croatia

Consolidation Continues In Croatian Food Industry

Leading Players Ride Out The Storm

Croatia Loses Biscuit Manufacturing To Bosnia

Domestic Agriculture Continues To Suffer

Market Overview

Food Production

Confectionery

Canned Food

Specialist Foods

Trade

Agriculture

Organic Farming

Olive Farming

Chapter 6 - Drink

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Carlsberg Brews New Hajducko Beer

Atlantic Grupa Acquisition Spree

Larger Brewers Invest In Expansion

Croatian Wine Specialists Expand Production

Market Overview

Alcoholic Drinks

Beer

Wine

Spirits

Soft Drinks

Hot Drinks

Chapter 7 - Mass Grocery Retail

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Croatia Losing Its Investment Appeal

Diversification Pursued In View Of Challenging Operating Conditions

Agrokor Fails To Finalise Mercator Deal

Market Overview

Leading Players

Table: Structure Of Croatia’s Mass Retail Grocery Sector By Number Of Outlets, -

Table: Structure Of Croatia’s Mass Retail Grocery Market By Value, -

Table: Estimated Value Of Sales Per Outlet, (US$mn)

Chapter 8 - Competitive Landscape

Table: Key Players In Croatia’s Food Sector

Table: Key Players In Croatia’s Drink Sector

Table: Key Players In Croatia’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector

Chapter 9 - Company Monitor

Food

Atlantic Grupa

Franck

Podravka

Agrokor

Dukat

Kraš

Drink

Adriatic Distillers

Carlsberg Croatia

Badel

Mass Grocery Retail

Spar Croatia

Lidl

Konzum

Mercator-H

Rewe (Billa)

Chapter 10 - Demographic Outlook

Table: Croatia’s Population By Age Group, - (‘)

Table: Croatia’s Population By Age Group, - (% of total)

Table: Croatia’s Key Population Ratios, -

Table: Croatia’s Rural And Urban Population, -

Chapter 11 - BMI Methodology

Table: Rewards

Table: Risks

Weighting

Table: Weighting

Chapter 12 - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary

Food & Drink

Mass Grocery Retail

Chapter 13 - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Sourcing

Related research categories

By sector: General drinks

By market: Croatia (in Europe)