Cote d'Ivoire Food and Drink Report Q1 2013

BMI View: We have a very positive medium-term outlook for the Ivorian food, beverage and retail sectors. Our positive view hinges on our Country Risk team’s expectations for economic growth in the country over our five-year forecast period, an impressive domestic demographic picture and the currently highly underdeveloped nature of the local market, which if nothing else leaves tremendous room for growth.

Private consumption represents 64.6% of Côte d’Ivoire’s GDP, and the fact that it has contracted in five of the past 10 years has weighed heavily on headline growth. This has been caused by weak spending power, poor infrastructure and a business environment that has not encouraged commercial development. BMI estimates that private consumption increased by 7.0% in 2012, and we predict it will rise by 6.0% in 2013, contributing 4.6 and 3.9 percentage points to growth respectively.

Key Forecasts

? Total food consumption growth in 2013: 11.2%. Compound annual growth to 2017: 10.3%.

? Mass grocery retail sales growth in 2013: 12.5%. Compound annual growth to 2017: 14.8%.

? Beer sales growth in 2013: 7.3%. Compound annual growth to 2017: 6.2%.

Key Trends Population Growth: In line with the wider Sub-Saharan African region, a major factor in West and Central Africa’s appeal to investors is its favourable population dynamics. Nigeria, with its massive population, leads the pack in this regard. However, Côte d’Ivoire’s population dynamics are also a major plus point for investors. The country’s already attractive 20.2mn-strong population base (as of 2011) will grow to 24.5mn by 2020 and by a massive 98% to a very healthy 40.7mn in 2050. Most notable is the age profile of the population – in 2012, 51% of Côte d’Ivoire’s population was expected to be younger than 20, and this provides immense long-term growth opportunities for regional investors.

Formalisation of Retailing: Throughout the region, our forecasts for mass grocery retail sales growth outstrip our forecasts for food consumption growth, although it should be noted that both are broadly impressive. The outperformance of retail will be a result of the ongoing formalisation of the sector and the fact that it is, in most cases, coming from an exceptionally low base. The addition of just a few modern retail outlets, which cause shoppers to trade up and away from traditional independent stores and marketplaces, will have a massive impact on growth in the sector. In Côte d’Ivoire, we estimate that only around 3% to 4% of grocery retail sales are accounted for by the organised sector and this provides tremendous room for growth.

Risk/Reward Ratings: Côte d’Ivoire is tied for 10th place out of 13 regional markets that are ranked for Sub-Saharan Africa within BMI’s Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings. The country scores above the regional average in terms of rewards – an illustration of the massive growth opportunities available in the region. However, it scores well below the regional average in terms of risk, highlighting the major challenge that investors face in fully realising this potential opportunity. Overall, Côte d’Ivoire ranks below the Sub-Saharan Africa average in our regional ratings.

Table of contents

Chapter - BMI Industry View

Chapter - Business Environment

BMI's Core Global Industry Views

Table: Core Views

Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Ratings

Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Q Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings

Macroeconomic Outlook

Chapter - Industry Forecast

Food, Drink, Mass Grocery Retail

Food

Table: Food Consumption, -

Drink

Table: Alcoholic Drinks, -

Mass Grocery Retail

Table: Mass Grocery Retail, -

Chapter - Market Overview

Looking Beyond Ghana And Nigeria For Opportunities In West Africa

SABMiller's Sechaba Breweries: SSA's Most Efficient Beer Company?

Chapter - Demographic Outlook

Table: Côte d'Ivoire's Population By Age Group, - (‘)

Table: Côte d'Ivoire's Population By Age Group, - (% of total)

Table: Côte d'Ivoire's Key Population Ratios, -

Table: Côte d'Ivoire's Rural And Urban Population, -

Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology

Table: Rewards

Table: Risks

Weighting

Table: Weighting

Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary

Food & Drink

Mass Grocery Retail

Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Sourcing

Related research categories

By sector: General drinks

By market: Cote Divoire (in Africa)