Colombia Retail Report Q1 2013
Report description
The Colombia Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concern about the impact on Colombia's economic outlook of monetary policy and bankingsector regulation.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Colombian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the ongoing deterioration of the global economy on the Colombian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Colombian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Colombian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by a healthy 27% to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 17%. The country comes fourth out of seven in BMI's Latin American Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it underperforms slightly for Reward.
Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales expected to grow from US$14.87bn in 2013 to US$21.26bn by the end of the period. This increase of 42.9%, is higher than the forecast 41.1% rate of growth for overall food sales. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in Colombia's status as the third most populous country and fifth-largest economy in Latin America. In addition, approximately three-quarters of Colombians live in urban areas and almost two-thirds of the population is younger than 30; facts that aid the development potential of the country's MGR sector, considering its emphasis on convenience shopping for urban dwellers.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
?? BMI is revising down its real GDP forecasts from 4.7% to 4.4% in 2012, and from 4.4% to 4.3 %in 2013 as the ongoing deterioration of the global economy will weigh on Colombian exports more heavily than we had previously anticipated. However, we believe foreign investment in Colombia will remain relatively robust despite global headwinds, supporting a positive long-term growth outlook for the country.
?? BMI forecasts that private consumption will moderate from 6.5% in 2011 to 3.6% and 4.0% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. This comes as we expect ongoing household deleveraging, amid record high levels of household debt, to continue to weigh on private consumption.
?? Retail sales contracted for the first time in more than two years in April 2012, falling 2.8% y-o-y, and then grew by only 0.9% in May.
Table of contents
Chapter - Executive Summary
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Colombia Retail Business Environment SWOT
Colombia Political SWOT
Colombia Economic SWOT
Chapter - Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Retail Sales Indicators
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segments, 2013f
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Colombia - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
Chapter - Regional Retail Outlook
Table: Latin America Retail Trends, 2009-2016
Table: Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
Table: % Of Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016
Table: Regional Food Consumption, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
Table: Regional Mass Grocery Retail, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
Regional Retail Trends
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings
Colombia's Retail Rating
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail
Colombia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Table: Structure Of Colombia's MGR Market – Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2004-2010
Table: Structure Of Colombia's MGR Market – Value Sales By Format, 2004-2010 (US$bn)
Table: Structure Of Colombia's MGR Market – Sales By Format, 2004-2010 (COPbn)
Table: Average Annual Sales Value By Format, 2010
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Colombia Mass Grocery Retail – Value Sales by Format – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, %
Industry Developments
Chapter - Consumer Electronics
Colombia Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Market Overview
Computers
Table: PC Sales, 2009-2016
AV Devices
Table: AV Sales, (US$mn), 2009-2016
Mobile Handsets
Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Electronics Market
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016
Chapter - OTC Pharmaceuticals
Colombia Pharmaceutical And Healthcare Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, 2008-2016
Competitive Landscape
Pharmaceutical Retail
Chapter - Demographic Outlook
Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Colombia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Colombia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
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Office opening hours
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The office is closed during weekends.
Current time at just-drinks headquarters: 7:42am (Thursday, 20 June 2013)
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