China Retail Report Q1 2013

The China Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market and flags up short-term concerns about the impact on China’s economic outlook of the slow unwinding of its massive real estate bubble.

We examine how best to maximise returns in the Chinese retail market while minimising investment risk. We also explore the impact of a prolonged slump in the eurozone and problems in the US on the Chinese consumer, as well as on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by leading players in the Chinese retail sector as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the market.

Chinese per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 51% through to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 55%. China is first out of seven in BMI’s Asia Retail Risk/Reward Ratings. Among all retail categories, automotives will be one of the outperformers through to 2016 in growth terms, with unit sales forecast to increase by 43% between 2013 and 2016, from 22.23mn units to 31.81n units as national manufacturers use their experience of joint ventures with internationals to develop their own brands.

In this competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the government’s recognition of the potential of alternative-fuel vehicles and the consequent implementation of a pilot incentive scheme.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:

?? The main forecast change we have made since our last report is in the speed of rebalancing in the Chinese economy. We now expect consumer’s share of GDP to rise at a faster rate than previously forecast, with consumption (private and public) now expected to rise above 50% of the economy by 2014 (rather than in 2016) and to continue to rise in importance thereafter.

?? BMI forecasts real GDP growth of 7.5% in 2012 and 7.1% in 2013, compared with the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 7.7% and 8.0%. China’s economic imbalances have grown consistently over the past decade, to the point where we now believe they have peaked. We stress that the process of rebalancing will be disruptive and the post-rebalancing economic structure will be much less conducive to rapid headline GDP expansion.

Table of contents

Chapter 1- Executive Summary

Chapter 2- SWOT Analysis

China Retail Business Environment SWOT

China Political SWOT

China Economic SWOT

China Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 3- Market Overview

Current Trends

Key Players

Chapter 4- Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: China Retail Sales Indicators, -

Table: Forecast Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, f

Consumer Outlook

Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: China Economic Activity, -

Chapter 5- Regional Retail Outlook

Asia Pacific Retail Outlook

Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales, - (US$bn)

Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales, - (%)

Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption, - (US$bn)

Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook, -

Chapter 6- Risk/Reward Ratings

Asia Risk/Reward Ratings

Table: Asia Retail Risk/Reward Ratings

China’s Retail Risk/Reward Rating

Rewards

Risks

Chapter 7- Mass Grocery Retail

China Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT

Market Overview

Leading Players

Table: Structure Of China’s MGR Market – Estimated Number Of Outlets, -

Table: Structure Of China’s MGR Market – Sales By Format, - (US$bn)

Table: Structure Of China’s MGR Market – Sales By Format, - (CNYbn)

Table: Annual Average Store Sales By Format,

Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Type,And

Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: MGR Sales, -

Industry Developments

Chapter 8- Consumer Electronics

China Consumer Electronics Market SWOT

Market Overview

Computers

Table: Computers Demand, -

Audio/Video

Table: AV Devices Demand, -

Mobile Communications

Table: Mobile Communications Demand, -

Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Total Consumer Electronics Sales, - (US$mn)

Industry Developments

Chapter 9- Automotives

China Autos Industry SWOT

Market Overview

Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Autos Production And Sales, -

Industry Developments

Chapter 10- BMI Methodology

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Sources

Related research categories

By sector: Retail (in Off-trade)

By market: China (in Asia), China (in BRICM)