Chile Retail Report Q1 2013
Report description
The Chile Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Chile's economic outlook of high labour costs, a moderation in external demand and a fiscally conservative government.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Chilean retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of a hard landing in China and the consequences of waning global demand for industrial metals such as copper on the Chilean consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Chilean retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Chilean per-capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by a healthy 23% to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 17%. The country comes sixth (out of seven) in BMI's Latin American Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it outperforms significantly for Risk.
Among all retail categories, over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase from US$0.63bn in 2013 to US$0.84bn by 2016, up more than 33%.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the government's substantial investment in healthcare coverage and provision, and potential for OTC sector expansion if switching legislation goes ahead.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
?? We forecast real GDP growth to slow from 5.6% in 2011 to 4.8% in 2012 and 4.0% in 2013, the result of a hard landing in China. The process of rebalancing away from rapid Chinese copper consumption will weigh on the Chilean economy for many years to come; we expect real GDP growth to average 3.8% from 2013-2017, down from 4.4.% from 2002-2011. ?? BMI has revised up its forecast for real private consumption growth in 2012 from 4.5% to 5.3%. Unemployment stayed lower than we expected, retail sales growth halted a multi-year decline and real wages grew, helping real private consumption growth to increase year-onyear (y-o-y) from 4.9% in Q112 to 5.5% in Q212.
?? BMI's forecast for relatively strong private consumption has been reinforced by an upward retail sales trend. Latest data from the National Statistics Institute show that Chilean retail sales rose 6.8% y-o-y in September 2012. Retail sales grew 8.4% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2012, according to calculations made by Bloomberg based on government data.
Table of contents
Chapter - Executive Summary
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Chile Retail Business Environment SWOT
Chile Political SWOT
Chile Economic SWOT
Chapter - Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Retail Industry, 2009-2016
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2013f
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Chile - Economic Activity
Chapter - Regional Retail Outlook
Table: Latin America Retail Trends, 2009-2016
Table: Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
Table: % Of Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016
Table: Regional Food Consumption, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
Table: Regional Mass Grocery Retail, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
Regional Retail Trends
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings
Chile's Retail Rating
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail
Chile Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Leading Retailers
Table: Structure of Chile's Mass Grocery Retail Market by Estimated Number of Outlets
Table: Structure of Chile's Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales by Format (US$bn)
Table: Average Annual Sales Value by Format – 2011
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Chile Mass Grocery Retail – Value Sales by Format – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type
Industry Developments
Chapter - Consumer Electronics
Chile Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Market Overview
Computers
Table: PC Sales, 2009-2016
AV
Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016
Mobile Handsets
Table: Mobile Communications
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Electronics Market
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview
Industry Developments
Chapter - OTC Pharmaceuticals
Chile Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016
Industry Development
Pharmaceutical Distribution
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
Chapter - Demographic Outlook
Table: Chile's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Chile's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Chile's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Chile's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
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