Chile Food and Drink Report Q1 2013
Report description
We believe the impact of a Chinese hard landing will lead to slower Chilean real GDP growth. That said, private consumption has continued to perform well; we expected it to grow 5.3% in 2012. Unemployment has so far stayed lower than we expected, while real wages also are continuing to grow. Supporting the increase in private consumer spending has been steady growth in bank loans, a trend we expect to be sustained through 2013. Indeed, a cut to the monetary policy rate will allow credit to grow further and consumption to increase 5.5% in real terms in 2013.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
? 2013 per capita food consumption value = +5.7%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2017 = +5.7%.
? 2013 alcoholic drinks value sales = +6.4%; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +6.3%.
? 2013 soft drinks value sales = +8.0% ; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +8.1%.
? 2013 mass grocery retail value sales = +5.7%; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +5.7%.
Key Company Trends
Barry Callebaut Expands In Chile: In October 2012, Swiss business-to-business chocolate manufacturer Barry Callebaut signed a deal with Chile-based confectionery producer Arcos-Dos en Uno for the supply of compound and chocolate products. The move will see Barry Callebaut invest EUR13mn to build a new facility in the city of Santiago with capacity to produce 20,000 tonnes of chocolate products per year. The firm described the deal as its first long-term outsourcing agreement in South America, and the move fits with our favourable view of the regional confectionery sector as well as Barry Callebaut's stated desire to increase its exposure to emerging markets.
Cencosud Turns Attention To Colombia As Carrefour Exits: In October 2012, Chile-based retailer Cencosud announced it is to acquire the Colombian assets of French retailer Carrefour in a deal worth US$2.5bn. The move comes after the firm raised additional capital through a share sale in Chile and New York (via American depository receipts), which we said at the time was likely to be used to pay off debts and fund further expansion. We had speculated that the retailer was likely to be focused in Brazil, where it has been investing heavily since entering the market in 2007. However, the recent cooling of the Brazilian economy may have pushed the firm to look elsewhere, with Colombia's consumer sector currently outperforming its regional counterpart.
Key Risks To Outlook
Global Headwinds Pose Concern: The most serious risk to our forecasts comes from the potential for Chile's economy to suffer more heavily than we currently expect from a weak external picture. With exports comprising almost 40% of GDP, and almost 40% of total exports heading to China and the eurozone, there is clearly potential for Chile's economy to feel the effects from a hard landing in China or a potential break-up of the eurozone.
Table of contents
Chapter - BMI Industry View
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Chile Food Industry SWOT
Chile Drink Industry SWOT
Chile Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Chapter - Business Environment
BMI's Core Global Industry Views
Table: Core Views
Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Latin America Q113 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings (scores out of 10)
Table: Latin America Q113 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Chile's Risk/Reward Rating
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Canned Food
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Processed Food
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Oils & Fats Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Meat
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Pasta
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Bread And Snacks
Table: Bread & Snacks Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Dairy
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Drink
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type
Trade
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Chapter - Food
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Barry Callebaut Expands In Chile
Rising Exports, Domestic Demand Prompt Confectionery Investment
Fonterra And Nestlé's Plan For Merger Derailed By Opposition
Chile Positioned As Nestlé's Regional R&D Hub
Foreign Direct Investment Flowing In
Market Overview
Food Sector
Canned Food/Prepared Food
Confectionery
Dairy
Aquaculture
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Chapter - Drink
Key Industry Trends And Developments
CCU Enters Uruguay
Dynamism In Chile's Beverage Sector Set To Unwind?
Coca-Cola Bottlers Merging
Starbucks Continues To Expand In Latin America
Market Overview
Soft Drinks
Hot Drinks
Alcoholic Drinks
Beer
Wine
Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Cencosud Turns Attention To Colombia As Carrefour Exits
Chilean Retailers Investing In Regional Expansion
Walmart's Entry Leads To Rapid Consolidation
Regulatory Scrutiny Over Prices
Market Overview
Table: Structure Of Chile's Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets
Table: Structure Of Chile's Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales By Format (US$bn)
Table: Average Annual Sales Value By Format – 2011
Chapter - Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players In Chile's Food Sector
Table: Key Players In Chile's Drink Sector
Table: Key Players In Chile's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Chapter - Company Profiles
Food
Empresas Carozzi
Nestlé Chile SA
Soprole
Drink
Concha y Toro
Embotelladora Andina
Compañia Cervecerias Unidas (CCU)
Mass Grocery Retail
Distribución y Servicio (Walmart)
Cencosud SA
Falabella
Chapter - Demographic Outlook
Table: Chile's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Chile's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Chile's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Chile's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Weighting
Table: Weighting
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing
The just-drinks office is currently: Closed
Office opening hours
Mon-Thursdays 9:00am-5:30pm
Fridays 9:00am-4:30pm
The office is closed during weekends.
Current time at just-drinks headquarters: 9:19pm (Friday, 24 May 2013)
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