Caribbean Food and Drink Report Q1 2013

Food consumption is expected to experience steady but unspectacular growth over our forecast period in all of the Caribbean markets covered in this report. While food consumption experienced a slowdown in between 2009 and 2011 due to the economic downturn, which led to a reduction in purchasing power and a drop in tourist numbers, consumption figures are expected to bounce back moving forward. Food consumption value growth – albeit relatively marginal in the short term at least – will be driven by increased affluence accompanied by a growing predilection for processed foods, which typically carry a higher value than basic traditional foods. On the export front things are more promising, particularly in the spirits sector, with Campari’s acquisition of Jamaican rum producer Lascelles DeMercado demonstrating the continued appeal of Caribbean brands to global players.

Headline Industry Data (US$)

2012 food consumption per capita:

? Bahamas: US$1,799

? Barbados: US$1,216

? Dominican Republic: US$236

? Jamaica: US$306

? Puerto Rico: US$981

? Trinidad & Tobago: US$903

Forecast 2013 food consumption per capita growth:

? Bahamas: +0.8%

? Barbados: +4.3%

? Dominican Republic: +2.5%

? Jamaica: +3.8%

? Puerto Rico: +2.6%

? Trinidad & Tobago: 1.4%

Forecast food consumption per capita compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2012 to 2017:

? Bahamas: 1.0%

? Barbados: +3.3%

? Dominican Republic: +2.6%

? Jamaica: +4.6%

? Puerto Rico: +3.5%

? Trinidad & Tobago: +3.0%

Key Company Trends

Campari Acquires Caribbean Rum Producer: In September 2012, Italian spirits group Campari announced the acquisition of Jamaican rum producer Lascelles DeMercado in a deal worth up to US$415mn. Campari will pay US$338mn to acquire the 81% stake owned by CL Financial and will make a public tender offer for the remaining shares. The deal gives the firm exposure to the buoyant rum category and affords the firm two of the strongest rum brands in the Caribbean: Appleton and Wray & Nephew. The move continues Campari's strategy of buying neglected brands that it can bolster with its strong distribution system and marketing expertise.

Caribbean Rum-Makers Say Trade Standards Favour US: In September 2012, rum-producing states in the Caribbean will have to adhere to international trade and marketing standards. Nations including Jamaica and Antigua claim that the system is rigged in favour of the US due to the level of subsidies, which threatens to push Caribbean brands out of business. Distillers have reportedly lodged a complaint with the World Trade Organization.

Key Risks To Outlook

Different Prospects for Individual Caribbean Markets: Given that the Caribbean is not a homogenous food and drinks markets, there are both upside and downside risks depending on the country. For example, given that tourism continues to account for a significant proportion of economic activity in Jamaica, improved international perceptions of the island are likely to bode well for real GDP growth and thus also for consumer outlook. On the domestic front, this is likely to encourage greater investment into both hotel and transport infrastructure from the private sector. While huge structural reforms in Puerto Rico, one of the largest regional food and drinks markets, have dramatically improved the island’s fiscal outlook, growth is set to remain weak, especially as the authorities aim to rein in public sector spending.

Table of contents

Chapter - BMI Industry View

Chapter - SWOT Analysis

Caribbean Food Industry SWOT

Caribbean Drink Industry SWOT

Caribbean Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT

Chapter - Business Environment

BMI's Core Global Industry Views

Table: Core Views

Chapter - Macroeconomic Forecasts

Bahamas

Table: Bahamas – Macroeconomic Data & Forecasts

Barbados

Table: Barbados – Macroeconomic Data & Forecasts

Dominican Republic

Table: Dominican Republic – Macroeconomic Data & Forecasts

Puerto Rico

Table: Puerto Rico – Macroeconomic Data & Forecasts

Jamaica

Table: Jamaica – Macroeconomic Data & Forecasts

Trinidad & Tobago

Table: Trinidad & Tobago – Economic Activity

Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario

Regional Consumer Outlook

Food

Table: Caribbean Food Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Table: Barbados – Margarine

Table: Trinidad & Tobago – Margarine

Table: Dominican Republic – Oils & Fats

Table: Trinidad & Tobago – Oils & Fats

Table: Dominican Republic – Dairy

Table: Jamaica – Meat

Drink

Alcoholic Drinks

Table: Barbados – Beer

Table: Dominican Republic – Beer

Table: Jamaica – Beer

Table: Trinidad & Tobago – Beer

Soft Drinks

Table: Barbados – Carbonated Soft Drinks

Table: Dominican Republic – Carbonated Soft Drinks

Table: Jamaica – Carbonated Soft Drinks

Mass Grocery Retail

Table: Caribbean –Grocery Retail Sales, -

Bahamas

Barbados

Dominican Republic

Jamaica

Puerto Rico

Trinidad & Tobago

Trade

Chapter - Food

Regional Overview

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Nestlé Invests In Jamaican Milk Energy Brand

Fast-Food Sector Growing In Caribbean

Wisynco To Benefit From Economic Growth And Rising Tourist Numbers

Chapter - Drink

Regional Overview

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Pernod Ricard Moving On From Havana Club Battle

ABI Set To Dominate Beer Market In The Dominican Republic

Wray & Nephew Gives New Look To Appleton Estate

Heineken Goes After Frontier Markets With Investment In Haiti

US Red Stripe Stripped Out Of Jamaica

Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail

Regional Overview

Chapter - Competitive Landscape

Table: Key Players In The Caribbean Food Market

Table: Key Players In The Caribbean Drinks Market

Table: Key Players In The Caribbean Mass Grocery Retail Market

Chapter - Company Profiles

Food

Seprod (Jamaica)

Canco Ltd (Jamaica)

Jamaica Producers Group (Jamaica)

Jamaica Broilers Group (Jamaica)

Drink

Wisynco Group (Jamaica)

D&G/Red Stripe (Jamaica)

Salada Foods (Jamaica)

Cervecería Nacional Dominicana (Dominican Republic)

Angostura (Trinidad & Tobago)

Mass Grocery Retail

Walmart (Puerto Rico)

Supermercados Nacional (Dominican Republic)

Chapter - Demographic Outlook

Barbados

Table: Barbados's Population By Age Group, - (‘)

Table: Barbados's Population By Age Group, - (% of total)

Table: Barbados's Key Population Ratios, -

Table: Barbados's Rural And Urban Population, -

Bahamas

Table: Bahamas' Population By Age Group, - (‘)

Table: Bahamas' Population By Age Group, - (% of total)

Table: Bahamas' Key Population Ratios, -

Table: Bahamas' Rural And Urban Population, -

Dominican Republic

Table: The Dominican Republic's Population By Age Group, - (‘)

Table: The Dominican Republic's Population By Age Group, - (% of total)

Table: The Dominican Republic's Key Population Ratios, -

Table: The Dominican Republic's Rural And Urban Population, -

Jamaica

Table: Jamaica's Population By Age Group, - (‘)

Table: Jamaica's Population By Age Group, - (% of total)

Table: Jamaica's Key Population Ratios, -

Table: Jamaica's Rural And Urban Population, -

Puerto Rico

Table: Puerto Rico's Population By Age Group, - (‘)

Table: Puerto Rico's Population By Age Group, - (% of total)

Table: Puerto Rico's Key Population Ratios, -

Table: Puerto Rico's Rural And Urban Population, -

Trinidad & Tobago

Table: Trinidad & Tobago's Population By Age Group, - (‘)

Table: Trinidad & Tobago's Population By Age Group, - (% of total)

Table: Trinidad & Tobago's Key Population Ratios, -

Table: Trinidad & Tobago's Rural And Urban Population, -

Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology

Table: Rewards

Table: Risks

Weighting

Table: Weighting

Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary

Food & Drink

Mass Grocery Retail

Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Sourcing

Related research categories

By sector: General drinks

By market: Antigua and Barbuda (in North America), Bahamas (in North America), Barbados (in North America), Cuba (in North America), Dominica (in North America), Dominican Republic (in North America), Grenada (in North America), Haiti (in North America), Jamaica (in North America), St Kitts and Nevis (in North America), St Lucia (in North America), St Vincent and the Grenadines (in North America), Trinidad and Tobago (in North America)