Canada Food and Drink Report Q4 2012

Canadian consumers leveraged up during the global downturn in 2008-09, which helped to underpin consumption and the economy as a whole. Now, the debt overhang threatens to curb consumption growth. We are forecasting relatively weak real private consumption growth of 1.9% in 2012 and 2.0% in 2013. Households will continue to restrain expenditure amid stretched balance sheets, and while income growth remains subdued. Furthermore, the national housing market could be due a correction, with prices gains among the highest in the developed world over the past four years, and mortgage conditions tightening.

Headline Industry Data (local currency) ? 2012 per capita food consumption value = +1.9%; forecast to 2016 = +7.7% ? 2012 alcoholic drink value sales = +4.1%; forecast to 2016 = +24.1% ? 2012 soft drink value sales = +5.1%; forecast to 2016 = +21.8% ? 2012 mass grocery retail value sales = +3.6%; forecast to 2016 = +16.3%

Key Company Trends And Developments McCain Signs Deal To Acquire CêlaVíta: In July 2012, Canada-based frozen foods company McCain signed a deal to acquire Netherlands-based chilled potato producer CêlaVíta, a subsidiary of Dutch firm Bieze Food GroupMcCain Foods Holland. The deal will enable McCain to acquire the CêlaVíta and La Menute brands. Moreover, the deal is expected to fortify McCain’s core potato business. Target Entry: In July 2012 it was revealed that US-based retailer Target Corp is to recruit as many as 27,000 people in Canada including 300 new staff for its Canadian headquarters in Mississauga. The company is to enter Canada in 2013 and plans to open 125-135 new stores across the country. Around US$10mn-11mn will be spent by Target to remodel each store, with the majority opening in 2013.

Key Risks To Outlook EU And Chinese Slowdown: With the US recovery seemingly on a steady trajectory, the biggest risk by far is the potential for a eurozone breakup, which would threaten the Canadian economy across the board, from business confidence, to trade, to financial markets. A major slowdown in China would negatively impact commodity prices, hurting Canadian terms of trade.

Table of contents

Chapter 1 - BMI Industry View

Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis

Canada Food Industry SWOT

Canada Drink Industry SWOT

Canada Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT

Chapter 3 - Business Environment

BMI’s Core Global Industry Views

Table: Core Views

Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: GDP By Expenditure, -

Chapter 4 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Consumer Outlook

Food

Food Consumption

Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Confectionery

Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Prepared Food

Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Processed Fish

Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, -

Frozen Fruit & Vegetables

Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade, -

Oils & Fats

Table: Oils & Fats Volume Sales, Production & Trade, -

Drink

Alcoholic Drinks

Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Table: Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, Production & Trade, -

Hot Drinks

Table: Hot Drink Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Soft Drinks

Table: Soft Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Mass Grocery Retail

Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts

Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Retail Format Type (%)

Trade

Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Chapter 5 - Food

Key Industry Trends And Developments

McCain Signs Deal To Acquire CêlaVíta

Saputo FY Earnings Impacted By Stagnant Cake Sales

Agropur And Agrifoods To Continue With Yoplait Manufacture

US Groups Strengthen Presence In Canada

Maple Leaf Net Earnings Rise More Than Twofold In

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Investment In Capacity

Interest In Healthy Alternatives

Food Industry Restructuring

North American Dairy Consolidation

Market Overview

Food Consumption

Food Processing

Confectionery

Dairy

Chapter 6 - Drink

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Molson Coors Looks To New Products To Drive Sales

Growing Wine Consumption Prompts Financial Manoeuvring At Magnotta

Corby Offloads Brands To Sazerac; Firms Pursue Contrasting Strategies

Soft Drinks Companies Reveal Calorie Count

Growth Of Coffee Capsules

Market Overview

Alcoholic Drinks

Hot Drinks

Soft Drinks

Chapter 7 - Mass Grocery Retail

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Contrasting Performance For Incumbents

Target To Enter In

Couche-Tard Aims To Expand Into Europe

Walmart Ramping Up Expansion

Sobeys Continues To Record Positive Figures; Expanding In Convenience

Market Overview

Main Players

Table: Annual Average Value Of Sales By Format,

Chapter 8 - Competitive Landscape

Key Players

Table: Key Players In Canada’s Food Sector

Table: Key Players In Canada’s Drink Sector

Table: Key Players In Canada’s Mass Grocery Retail Industry

Chapter 9 - Company Monitor

Food

Saputo

George Weston Ltd

Maple Leaf Foods

Drink

Corby Distilleries (Pernod Ricard)

Cott Corp

Mass Grocery Retail

Loblaw Companies Ltd

Metro Inc

Sobeys

Walmart

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Chapter 10 - Country Snapshot

Table: Canada’s Population By Age Group, - (‘)

Table: Canada’s Population By Age Group, - (% of total)

Table: Canada’s Key Population Ratios, -

Table: Canada’s Rural And Urban Population, -

Chapter 11 - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology

Table: Rewards

Table: Risks

Weighting

Table: Weighting

Chapter 12 - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary

Food & Drink

Mass Grocery Retail

Chapter 13 - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Sourcing

Related research categories

By sector: General drinks

By market: Canada (in North America)