Cameroon Food and Drink Report Q1 2013
BMI View: Cameroon’s food and drink and overall consumer industry is among the most developed in East Africa in relative terms. There is, however, a lot more room for growth going forward as incomes rise and more investment is directed towards its food and drink sector. As such, we expect consumer spending power to grow in line with the country’s strong medium-term growth outlook, with growth in economic activity driven by the ongoing expansion of the country’s oil industry and the subsequent inflow of investment into the market.
Key Forecasts ?? Total food consumption growth in 2012: 7.9 % year-on-year (y-o-y); compound annual growth to 2017: 10.2%. ?? Mass grocery retail sales growth in 2012: 9.3%; compound annual growth to 2017: 16.8%. ?? Beer sales growth in 2012: 4.6%; compound annual growth to 2017: 4.2%.
Key Trends Population Growth: In line with the wider Sub-Saharan African region, a major factor in West and Central Africa’s appeal to investors is its favourable population dynamics. Nigeria, with its massive population, leads the pack in this regard. However, Cameroon’s population dynamics are also a major plus point for investors. The country’s 20mn-strong population (as of 2011) will grow to 24.1mn by 2020 and by an enormous 88% to 38.5mn in 2050. Most notable is the age profile of the population; in 2012, 51% of Cameroon’s population is forecast to be younger than 20, and this provides immense long-term growth opportunities for regional investors.
Formalisation of Retailing: Throughout the region, our forecasts for mass grocery retail sales growth outstrip our forecasts for food consumption growth, although it should be noted that both are broadly impressive. The outperformance of retail will be a result of the ongoing formalisation of the sector and the fact that it is, in most cases, coming from an exceptionally low base. The addition of just a few modern retail outlets, which cause shoppers to trade up and away from traditional independent stores and marketplaces, will have a massive impact on growth in the sector. In Cameroon, we estimate that only around 2% of grocery retail sales are accounted for by the organised sector, providing tremendous room for growth.
Risk/Reward Ratings: Cameroon is in 9th place out of the 13 regional markets that are ranked for Sub- Saharan Africa within BMI’s Food & Drink Q113 Risk/Reward Ratings. The country scores above the regional average in terms of rewards – an illustration of the massive growth opportunities available in the region. However, it scores below average in terms of risk, highlighting the challenge that investors face in fully realising this potential opportunity. Overall, Cameroon ranks just below the Sub-Saharan Africa average in our regional ratings.
Table of contents
Chapter 1 - BMI Industry View
Chapter 2 - Business Environment
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views
Table: Core Views
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Q Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Cameroon – Economic Activity
Chapter 3 - Industry Forecast
Food, Drink, Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Cameroon – Food Consumption
Table: Cameroon – Confectionery
Table: Cameroon – Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Cameroon – Soft Drinks
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Cameroon – Mass Grocery Retail Sales
Chapter 4 - Market Overview
Looking Beyond Ghana And Nigeria For Opportunities In West Africa
SABMiller’s Sechaba Breweries: SSA’s Most Efficient Beer Company?
Chapter 5 - Demographic Outlook
Table: Cameroon's Population By Age Group, - (')
Table: Cameroon's Population By Age Group, - (% of total)
Table: Cameroon's Key Population Ratios, -
Table: Cameroon's Rural And Urban Population, -
Chapter 6 - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Chapter 7 - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
Chapter 8 - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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