Bulgaria Retail Report Q1 2013
Report description
The Bulgarian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags up short-term concern about the impact on Bulgaria’s economic outlook of a domestic banking sector highly exposed to peripheral eurozone banks.
The report looks at how best to maximise returns in the Bulgarian retail market while minimising investment risk. We also explore the impact of weakening demand from the eurozone on the Bulgarian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
BMI also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Bulgarian retail sector as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market. Bulgarian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by a modest 17% between 2013 and 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 33%. The country is eighth out of 10 in BMI’s Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) retail risk/reward ratings, largely owing to its modest GDP per capita. However, 10th-placed Croatia’s small population, lack of modern retail space and lengthy bureaucratic procedures mean Bulgaria is unlikely to move down the table over the forecast period.
Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, owing to relatively low household penetration rates for digital product groups such as notebook computers (30% CAGR projected) and LCD TV sets (17% CAGR). BMI forecasts a 20% increase in sales, from US$1.41bn in 2013 to US$1.70bn by 2016.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the influx of EU funds helping to boost spending on computers and drive information and social development.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:
? BMI expects the Bulgarian economy to slow in H212 as demand from the eurozone weakens, forecasting full-year real GDP growth of 0.1%. Conversely, we expect a recovery in the bloc, coupled with some fiscal loosening ahead of 2013’s parliamentary elections, to drive GDP growth of 1.4% in 2013.
? BMI forecasts private consumption growth of 0.7% and 1.0% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. Having contracted by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q112, household spending made a robust recovery in Q212 as it grew by 4.0% q-o-q. Although wage growth has slowed from 8.2 %at the beginning of 2012 to 4.4% in June (on a three-month moving average basis), it has remained positive in real terms. We also expect fiscal policy to be supportive of households as the government prepares for parliamentary elections in 2013.
Table of contents
Chapter - Executive Summary
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Bulgaria Retail Business Environment SWOT
Bulgaria Political SWOT
Bulgaria Economic SWOT
Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT
Chapter - Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Bulgaria Retail, 2008-2016
Table: Retail Sales By Sector, 2013f
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Bulgaria - Economic Activity
Chapter - Regional Retail Outlook
Central And Eastern Europe Retail Outlook
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2008-2016
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn, unless stated)
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016
Regional Retail Trends
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings
Chapter - Bulgaria's Retail Rating
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail
Bulgaria Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Leading Retailers
Table: Structure Of The Mass Retail Grocery Market By Number Of Outlets, 2002-2011
Table: Structure Of The Mass Retail Grocery Market By Value, 2002-2011
Table: Value Sales By Individual Outlet Type (2011)
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales – Historical Data & Forecast, 2009-2016
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format
Industry Developments
Consolidation In MGR In Line With Wider Regional Trends
Discount Players Invest In Expansion In Bulgaria
Companies Experiment With New Store Formats
Large Retailers Accused Of Pressurising Local Producers
Chapter - Consumer Electronics
Bulgaria Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Market Overview
Computers
Table: PC Sales
AV
Table: AV Sales
Mobile Handsets
Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016
Consumer Electronics Market
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016
Industry Developments
Chapter - Automotives
Bulgaria Auto Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Bulgaria Auto Production And Sales, 2009-2016
Industry Developments
Regulation
Component Production
Table: Component Production
Commercial Vehicles
Chapter - Demographic Outlook
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020
Chapter - BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
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