Bulgaria Food and Drink Report Q4 2011
Report description
In our Q411 update of the Risk/Reward Ratings for the Central and Eastern Europe, Bulgaria ranks 10 instead of 12, out of the 15 key regional markets. Bulgaria’s relatively favourable risk profile remains the key behind its placement and we expect its rewards to remain subdued for most of the forecast period. A slow-recovering economy and austerity measures will continue to depress consumer spending, while foreign direct investment inflows remain minimal.
Headline Industry Data (local currency) ?? 2011 per capita food consumption: +3.08%; forecast to 2015:+17.19% ?? 2011 alcoholic drinks sales: +2.44%; forecast to 2015: +16.99% ?? 2011 soft drinks sales: +3.26%; forecast to 2015: +18.37 % ?? 2011 mass grocery retail sales: +7.76%; forecast to 2015: +44.05%
Key Industry Trends Bulgarian Wine Industry Posts Encouraging Q111 Sales: In further positive news for the Bulgarian wine industry, Balkan Business News reported in July 2011 that the domestic wine industry increased its volume sales by 67% in the January-March 2011 period, compared to the same period of 2010. The Q111 results are down to local producers’ intensive marketing and increased investment in new grape varieties. Similarly, in H111, the sales of wine in Bulgaria rose by 40% year-on-year (y-o-y), according to the Bulgarian Executive Vine and Wine Agency. Exports in the same period rose by only 1%.
Soft Drinks Market Remains Weak: Demand for soft drinks in Bulgaria has dropped, with consumption declining by 5% to 406mn litres in H111. According to data gathered by the Bulgarian Soft Drinks Association, the drop was attributed to the downward trend in soft drinks consumption on the ‘cold market’, and to the fact that both retailers and consumers continue to prefer cheaper products. The biggest decline was seen in fruit juice sales, which fell 8% in H111, Balkans Business News reported.
Key Risks To Outlook Upcoming Elections: While the popularity of the ruling GERB party has been dented by austerity measures, lacklustre economic recovery and the lack of more meaningful results from its anti-corruption drive, we believe that the administration will stay in power following October elections. Our view is based in large part on the lack of credible alternatives among the opposition parties. Policy continuity towards eurozone membership can be expected regardless.
Table of contents
Chapter 1 - BMI Industry View
Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis
Bulgaria Food Industry SWOT
Bulgaria Drink Industry SWOT
Bulgaria Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Chapter 3 - Business Environment Ratings
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views
Table: BMI’s Core Views For The Food & Drink Industry
CEE Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Emerging Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q
Bulgaria’s Food & Risk/Reward Ratings
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity
Chapter 4 - Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food consumption indicators
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Sales
Canned and Processed Food
Table: Food subsector indicators
Table: Meat
Table: Jams And Jellies
Pasta Error! Bookmark not defined
Table: Pasta
Baked Products
Table: Baked Products
Dairy
Table: Dairy
Drink
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Indicators
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drinks Sales
Hot Drinks
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Retail indicators
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data and Forecasts
Trade
Table: Sectoral trade indicators
Chapter 5 - Food
Key Industry Trends and Developments
Organic Foods as Niche Growth Area
Difficult Economic Conditions Provide Opportunities for Consolidation
Bulgaria Continues to Increase Annual Rice Output
Market Overview
Food Consumption
Food Production
Leading Players
Confectionery
Canned Food
Trade
Agriculture
Organic Farming
Chapter 6 - Drink
Key Industry Trends and Developments
Bulgarian Wine Remains of Interest
Soft Drink Industry Remains under Strain
Consolidation in the Café Industry
Companies Breach Regulations
Market Overview
Alcoholic Drinks
Beer
Wine
Spirits
Soft Drinks
Hot Drinks
Chapter 7 - Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends and Developments
Consolidation in MGR in Line with Wider Regional Trends
Discount Players Invest in Expansion in Bulgaria
Companies Experiment with New Store Formats
Market Overview
Leading Retailers
Table: Structure of the Mass Retail Grocery Market by Number of Outlets
Table: Structure of the mass retail grocery market by value
Table: Value Sales by Individual Outlet Type ()
Chapter 8 - Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players – Bulgaria’s Food Sector
Table: Key Players – Bulgaria’s Drink Sector
Table: Key Players In Bulgaria’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Chapter 9 - Company Monitor
Food
Unilever Bulgaria
Kraft Bulgaria
Nestlé Sofia AD
Ital Food Industry AD
Drink
Zagorka (Heineken)
Carslberg Bulgaria
Kamenitza (formerly InBev Bulgaria)
Devin
Mass Grocery Retail
Metro Cash & Carry Bulgaria
Rewe Bulgaria (Billa and Penny Markt)
CBA Bulgaria
Piccadilly (Delta)
Lidl Bulgaria
Chapter 10 - BMI Food & Drink MethodologChapter - y
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Weighting
Table: Weighting
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting And Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing
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Office opening hours
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Fridays 9:00am-4:30pm
The office is closed during weekends.
Current time at just-drinks headquarters: 7:32pm (Tuesday, 22 May 2012)
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