Brazil Retail Report Q4 2012

The Brazilian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on Brazil's economic outlook of structural economic imbalances. The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Brazilian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis and slowing Chinese growth on the Brazilian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Brazilian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

Brazilian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by a modest 12% to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 17%. The country comes first in BMI's LatAm Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it underperforms slightly for Risk. Among all retail categories, Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by nearly 62% between 2012 and 2016, from US$97.44bn to US$157.47bn. Hypermarkets and supermarkets have gradually taken market share from traditional stores in recent years, with the latter accounting for almost 63% of MGR sales in 2012. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the Growth Acceleration Programme, aimed at increasing infrastructure-related investment via tax incentives and large public and private investments. The planned measures, if successful, could ease retailers' logistical problems, which are mainly caused by poor road networks in many parts of the country. Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views: • BMI has revised down its 2012 headline real GDP growth figure for Brazil significantly, from 3.9% to 2.4%, as the real's break through multi-year trendline support on the monthly chart in May indicates to us that the country's structural economic imbalances, namely a very strong consumer and a weak manufacturing sector, are beginning to unwind sooner than we initially anticipated. Though massive fiscal and monetary stimulus may boost growth in late 2012, we believe a period of painful consumer deleveraging remains ahead, informing our below-consensus real GDP growth forecast of 3.7% for 2013.

Table of contents

Chapter 1 - SWOT Analysis

Brazil Retail Business Environment SWOT

Brazil Political SWOT

Brazil Economic SWOT

Chapter 2 - Market Overview

Current Trends

Key Players

Chapter 3 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Consumer Outlook

Retail Growth Outlook

Table: Retail Sales Indicators, -

Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Sectors, f

Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Economic Activity, -

Chapter 4 - Regional Retail Outlook

Table: Latin America Retail Trends, -

Table: Regional Retail Sales, - (US$bn)

Table: % Of Regional Retail Sales, -

Table: Regional Food Consumption, - (US$bn)

Table: Regional Mass Grocery Retail, - (US$bn)

Regional Retail Trends

Chapter 5 - Risk/Reward Ratings

Table: Latin America Retail Business Environment Ratings

Brazil's Retail Rating

Limits To Potential Returns

Risks To Realisation Of Returns

Chapter 6 - Mass Grocery Retail

Brazil Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT

Market Overview

Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets

Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales By Format (US$bn)

Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales By Format (BRLbn)

Table: Average Annual Sales Value By Format –

Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales by Format – Historical Data & Forecasts

Table: Sales Breakdown by Retail Format Type (%)

Industry Developments

Chapter 7 - Consumer Electronics

Brazil Consumer Electronics Market SWOT

Market Overview

Computers

Table: PC Sales, -

Brazil Retail Report Q

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AV Devices

Table: AV Sales, -

Mobile Handsets

Table: Mobile Communications, -

Industry Forecast Scenario

Consumer Electronics Market

Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, -

Industry Developments

Chapter 8 - Automotives

Brazil Autos Industry SWOT

Industry Forecast Scenario

Sales

Table: Brazil Autos Sales By Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts

Production

Table: Autos Production By Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts

Trade

Table: Autos Trade – Historical Data And Forecasts

Passenger Cars

Table: Passenger Car Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts

Table: Brazil – Passenger Car Sales -

New Investments

Table: Passenger Car Production, -

Growth In Alternative Fuels

Blaming The Government

Company News

Chapter 9 - Demographic Outlook

Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, - (')

Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, - (% of total)

Table: Brazil's Key Population Ratios, -

Table: Brazil's Rural And Urban Population, -

Chapter 10 - BMI Methodology

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Sources

Related research categories

By sector: Retail (in Off-trade)

By market: Brazil (in South America), Brazil (in BRICM)