Brazil Food and Drink Report Q3 2014

Brazil Food and Drink Report Q3 2014

Published: June 2014
Publisher: BMI Research
Product ref: 213620
Pages: 126
Format: PDF
Delivery: Immediate download

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We are revising down our real private consumption growth forecast to 2.0%, from 2.3%, accounting for a large part of the downgrade to our headline growth forecast, as we expect that more significant monetary tightening, as well as continued currency weakness will temper household spending this year. Indeed, on the monetary policy front, we have revised our interest rate outlook for 2014 in recent months, and are now expecting that the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) will hike the Selic target rate to 11.25% in H114 before pausing. Food and retail consumption is likely to outperform among the country's private consumption items, and we project generally strong sales growth for the main companies in the sector. We also believe that a moderation in input prices (grains) could help margins for these companies to recover in the coming months.

Headline Industry Data (local currency) ¦ 2014 per capita food consumption = +7.1% y-o-y; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2018 = +7.4%. ¦ 2014 alcoholic drink sales = +8.2% y-o-y; forecast CAGR to 2018 = +7.2%. ¦ 2014 soft drink sales = +8.4% y-o-y; forecast CAGR to 2018= +8.3%. ¦ 2014 mass grocery retail sales = +7.4% y-o-y; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +7.8%.

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