Belarus Food and Drink Report Q4 2012

We stick to our view that the consumer outlook in Belarus will largely remain subdued for the remainder of 2012. Indeed, despite strong retail turnover in the first few months of the year, factors such as high consumer price inflation, higher import costs on the back of currency weakness, limited real wage growth and general uncertainty over future policy will continue to temper domestic demand.

Headline Industry Data (local currency): ?? 2012 food consumption = +58.33%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2016 = +22.37% ?? 2012 per capita food consumption = +58.86%; forecast CAGR to 2016 = +22.76% ?? 2012 alcoholic drinks value sales = +74.25%; forecast CAGR to 2016 = +23.76% ?? 2012 soft drinks value sales = +72.54%; forecast CAGR to 2016 = +26.52%

Key Company Trends Belarusian Sugar Refineries Expanding Production Capacities: While the country’s sugar refineries have worked to increase their production capacity, further expansion is required to keep up with rising demand. Belgospishcheprom Concern aims to increase its output of white sugar to 720,000 tonnes in 2015, some of which will be aimed at exports. Similarly, Gorodeya Sugar Refinery is increasing its output of dried granulated sugar beet pulp, while Skidel Sugar Refinery is planning to expand its production of citric acid.

Belarusian Euroopt Opens Store in Russia: Belarusian discount retailer Euroopt has expanded in Russia, opening a store in Smolensk in July 2012, as reported by PMR. The Smolensk store is a collaborative effort with the Russian Vtoroy Dom grocery chain. The move followed the June inauguration of a store in Moscow – the first in the country. The company plans to further expand its presence in Russia through the leasing of operating grocery outlets, as in Smolensk.

Key Risks To Outlook Monetary Policy: The biggest risk to our outlook is that of premature policy easing by the government and central bank. While not yet a major concern, we stress that sustained easing at the speed already witnessed would begin to put greater pressure on the currency. This is particularly the case given that lending to the wider economy has begun to pick up pace again. We also remain concerned that the government may abandon its prudent fiscal stance in order to meet its 5.0-5.5% growth target for 2012, and also as a populist measure. While inflationary pressure has been diminishing gradually, we stress that Belarus Food & Drink Report Q4 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 8 a premature or aggressive easing of either monetary or fiscal policy could stoke second-round inflationary effects in the economy, which would place the currency under renewed selling pressure.

Table of contents

Chapter 1 - BMI Industry View

Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis

Belarus Food Industry SWOT

Belarus Drink Industry SWOT

Belarus Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT

Chapter 3 - Business Environment

BMI’s Core Global Industry Views

Table: Core Views

Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Economic Activity, -

Chapter 4 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Consumer Outlook

Food

Food Consumption

Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Confectionery

Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Canned Food

Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Meat

Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Pasta

Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Baked Goods

Table: Baked Goods Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Dairy

Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Drink

Alcoholic Drinks

Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Soft Drinks

Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Hot Drinks

Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Mass Grocery Retail

Trade

Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Chapter 5 - Food

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Belarus Widening Agricultural Cooperation

Belarusian Food-Processing Industries Attracting Investment

Country Aims To Expand Export Potential

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Belarus Calling For CIS Free Trade Zone

Market Overview

Food Consumption

Food Processing

Confectionery

Agriculture

Chapter 6 - Drink

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Government Increases Vodka Output Quotas

Domestic Beer Production Increasing

Multinationals Continuing To Invest

Local Firms Look To Increase Presence In Soft Drinks Market

Regional Wine Producers Expanding Ties

Market Overview

Alcoholic Drinks

Beer

Spirits

Soft Drinks

Hot Drinks

Chapter 7 - Mass Grocery Retail

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Belarusian Euroopt Opens Store In Russia

Government Encouraging Convenience Store Openings

Operating Environment Remains Challenging

MGR Had Been Of Interest In Recent Years

Market Overview

Chapter 8 - Competitive Landscape

Table: Key Players In Belarus’s Food Sector

Table: Key Players In Belarus’s Drink Sector

Table: Key Players In Belarus’s Mass Grocery Retail Industry

Chapter 9 - Company Monitor

Food

Bellakt

Kraft Foods

Drink

Krinitsa

PepsiCo

Mass Grocery Retail

Euroopt

Sedmoi Kontinent

Vester

Chapter 10 - Demographic Outlook

Table: Belarus’s Population By Age Group, - (‘)

Table: Belarus’s Population By Age Group, - (% of total)

Table: Belarus’s Key Population Ratios, -

Table: Belarus’s Rural And Urban Population, -

Chapter 11 - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology

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Table: Rewards

Table: Risks

Weighting

Table: Weighting

Chapter 12 - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary

Food & Drink

Mass Grocery Retail

Chapter 13 - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Sourcing

Related research categories

By sector: General drinks

By market: Belarus (in Europe)