Bahrain Retail Report Q4 2012

The Bahrain Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Bahrain's economic outlook of the ongoing political crisis. The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Bahrain retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of a possible prolonged downturn in hydrocarbon prices on the Bahraini consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Bahrain retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

Bahrain per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 32.0% through to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of only 2.3%. The country comes sixth out of seven in BMI's Middle East and Africa Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it outperforms significantly for Risk. Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by nearly 47% between 2012 and 2016, from US$1.12bn to US$1.65bn, as demand for packaged and convenience foods continues to pick up on the back of busier lifestyles and more Westernised eating habits.

In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in Bahrain's business-friendly regulatory environment, which has succeeded in attracting a number of multinational food companies. Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views: ? BMI forecasts real GDP expanding 2.9% in 2012, following an estimated 1.9% in 2011. The economy's medium-term outlook remains dependent on the trajectory of the political crisis, with a failure to find a lasting solution likely to undermine growth through 2016. ? BMI continues to hold a relatively bullish outlook on household consumption. Although timely data out of the country are relatively sparse, previously announced hikes to public-sector salaries are likely to be feeding through to the wider economy. Indeed, local reports have indicated that growth in car sales was well into double digits through the first five months of 2012. With banking-sector credit growth hitting three-year highs in H112, we expect private consumption to remain well supported in the near term.

Table of contents

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis

Bahrain Retail Business Environment SWOT

Bahrain Political SWOT

Bahrain Economic SWOT

Bahrain Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 3 - Market Overview

Current Trends

Key Players

Chapter 4 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Consumer Outlook

Retail Growth Outlook

Table: Retail Sales Indicators, -

Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, f

Chapter 5 - Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: GDP By Expenditure, Current Prices Breakdown

Chapter 6 - Regional Retail Outlook

Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Trends, -

Table: Middle East And Africa Regional Retail Sales, - (US$bn)

Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales, - (%)

Current Trends

Chapter 7 - Risk/Reward Ratings

Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Ratings

Table: Regional Retail Risk/Reward Ratings

Bahrain's Retail Rating

Limits To Potential Returns

Risks To Realisation Of Returns

Chapter 8 - Mass Grocery Retail

Bahrain Mass Grocery Retail SWOT

Market Overview

Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: MGR Sales, -

Industry Developments

Table: MGR Sales, -

Chapter 9 - Consumer Electronics

Bahrain Consumer Electronics Market SWOT

Market Overview

Computers

Table: PC Sales, -

AV

Bahrain Retail Report Q

© Business Monitor International Ltd Page

Table: AV Sales, -

Mobile Handsets

Table: Mobile Communications, -

Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, -

Government Initiatives

Chapter 10 - Automotives

Bahrain Auto Industry SWOT

Market Overview

Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Autos Sales, -

Industry Developments

Table: Bahrain Autos Sector – Key Players

Chapter 11 - Demographic Outlook

Table: Bahrain's Population By Age Group, - (')

Table: Bahrain's Population By Age Group, - (% of total)

Table: Bahrain's Key Population Ratios, -

Table: Bahrain's Rural And Urban Population, -

Chapter 12 - BMI Methodology

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Sources

Related research categories

By sector: Retail (in Off-trade)

By market: Bahrain (in Asia)