Argentina Retail Report Q4 2012

The Argentine Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on Argentina's economic outlook of moderating commodity prices and a deterioration in domestic demand.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Argentine retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of deteriorating relations between Argentina and its key trade partners on the Argentine consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Argentine retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

Argentine per-capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 25% to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 17%. The country comes last in BMI's Latin American Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it performs slightly better for Risk.

Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by nearly 26% between 2012 and 2016 – from US$5.77bn to US$7.25bn. PC penetration is fairly low at about 25%, and this is expected to climb to more than 30% by 2016, creating opportunities for vendors.

The Conectar Igualdad programme to provide 3mn PCs to public schools nationwide should provide opportunities for manufacturers and retailers alike.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:

?? BMI has revised down its 2012 forecast for Argentina's real GDP growth to 4.0%, from 5.3% previously. We believe that the protectionist policies recently implemented by President Cristina Fernández's administration will have a negative impact on private consumption, fixed investment and export growth, acting as a drag on the economy.

?? BMI expects private consumption to contribute only 2.6 percentage points (pp) to real GDP growth in 2012. The import-substitution policies implemented by President Fernández are likely to result in empty shelves at supermarkets and stores rather than in a boost of domestic Argentina Retail Report Q4 2012

© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 8 production, dragging down consumer spending. Moreover, the ongoing decline in industrial production is likely to result in higher unemployment and, in turn, lower consumption. ?? Retail sales in Argentina rose less than expected in July 2012. Sales increased by a seasonally adjusted 15.2%, down from a revised 29.1% in June. Analysts had expected a rise of 19.8% in July.

Table of contents

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis

Argentina Retail Business Environment SWOT

Argentina Political SWOT

Argentina Economic SWOT

Argentina Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 2 - Market Overview

Current Trends

Key Players

Chapter 3 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Retail Growth Outlook

Table: Retail Sales Indicators, -

Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Economic Activity

Regional Retail Outlook

Table: Latin America Retail Trends, -

Table: Latin American Retail Sales, - (US$bn)

Table: Latin American Countries, % Of Retail Sales, -

Table: Latin American Food Consumption, - (US$bn)

Table: Latin American Mass Grocery Retail, - (US$bn)

Regional Retail Trends

Risk/Reward Ratings

Table: Latin America Retail Business Environment Ratings

Chapter 4 - Consumer Electronics

Argentina Consumer Electronics Market SWOT

Market Overview

Computers

Table: PC Sales, -

AV Devices

Table: AV Sales, -

Mobile Handsets

Table: Mobile Communications, -

Industry Forecast Scenario

Consumer Electronics Market

Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, -

Industry Developments

Chapter 5 - Automotives

Argentina Autos Industry SWOT

Regional Production Rivals

Exports

Supply Chain

Domestic Sales

Industry Forecast Scenario

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Domestic Sales

Table: Argentina Autos Sales, -

Table: Argentina Autos Production, -

Trade

Table: Argentina Autos Trade, -

Economic Contribution

Table: Argentina Autos Sector Economic Contribution

Industry News

Competitive Landscape

Table: Vehicle Production, -

Table: Vehicle Sales (units), -

Passenger Vehicles – Forecast & Analysis

Table: Passenger Car Segment, -

Key Players

Table: Passenger Car Production By Manufacturer (Units), -

Table: Passenger Car Sales By Manufacturer (Units), -

New Investments

Commercial Vehicles – Forecast & Analysis

Table: Commercial Vehicle Segment, -

Light Commercial Vehicles

Table: Light Commercial Vehicle Sales By Manufacturer (Units), -

Table: Light Commercial Vehicle Production By Manufacturer (Units), -

Heavy Commercial Vehicles

Table: Heavy Commercial Vehicle Sales By Manufacturer (Units), -

Table: Heavy Commercial Vehicle Production By Manufacturer, - (CBUs)

Buses

Table: Argentina Bus Sales By Manufacturer, -

Table: Argentina Bus Production By Manufacturer, - (CBUs)

New Investments

Table: Argentine Fleet Renovation Plan

Motorcycles Analysis

Table: Argentine Motorcycle Demand Structure ()

Suppliers

Sector News

Company Developments

Chapter 6 - OTC Pharmaceuticals

Argentina Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT

Market Overview

Regulatory Regime

OTC Regulation

Intellectual Property Environment

IP Disputes

Counterfeit Pharmaceuticals

Pricing Regime

Table: Pharmaceutical Price Build-Up

Table: Drug Price Freeze, -

Reimbursement Regime

Other Regulatory Issues

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Chapter 7 - Demographic Outlook

Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, - (')

Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, - (% of total)

Table: Argentina's Key Population Ratios, -

Table: Argentina's Rural And Urban Population, -

Chapter 8 - BMI Methodology

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Sources

Related research categories

By sector: Retail (in Off-trade)

By market: Argentina (in South America)