Argentina Retail Report Q1 2013
The Argentine Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on Argentina's economic outlook of the prospect of a sizeable currency devaluation in 2013.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Argentine retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of deteriorating relations between Argentina and its key trade partners on the Argentine consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Argentine retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Argentine per-capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 21% between 2013 and 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 17%. The country comes last in BMI's Latin American Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it performs slightly better for Risk.
Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 18% between 2013 and 2016 – from US$6.14bn to US$7.25bn. PC penetration is fairly low at about 25%, and this is expected to climb to more than 30% by 2016, creating opportunities for vendors.
The Conectar Igualdad programme to provide 3mn PCs to public schools nationwide should provide opportunities for manufacturers and retailers alike.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:
?? BMI has revised down its 2012 real GDP growth estimate from 4.0% to 2.8%. Additionally, we now believe that persistent economic imbalances in the Argentine economy will lead to a sharp reduction in economic growth and a significant devaluation of the peso in 2013. We are revising down our 2013 real GDP growth forecast from 3.7% to 0.9%, after which point we believe the effects of a 25% devaluation in 2013 will pave the way for stronger growth for the remainder of the decade.
?? BMI has revised down its 2012 private consumption growth forecast from 4.0% to 3.5%. We see the impact of a currency devaluation hitting real private consumption growth particularly hard in
2013. We forecast that consumer price inflation will average 25% in 2013, and unemployment will end the year at 8.5%, which will see private consumption growth remain flat in real terms. ?? Latest data show that retail sales in Argentina rose by more than expected in September 2012, to a seasonally adjusted 27.5%, from a revised 31.9% in August. Analysts had expected a September increase of 24.2%.
Table of contents
Chapter - Executive Summary
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Argentina Retail Business Environment SWOT
Argentina Political SWOT
Argentina Economic SWOT
Argentina Business Environment SWOT
Chapter - Market Overview
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016
Table: Argentina - Economic Activity
Regional Retail Outlook
Table: Latin America Retail Trends, 2009-2016
Table: Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
Table: % Of Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016
Table: Regional Food Consumption, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
Table: Regional Mass Grocery Retail, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
Regional Retail Trends
Table: Regional Risk/Reward Ratings
Argentina's Retail Rating
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Chapter - Consumer Electronics
Argentina Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Table: PC Sales, 2009-2016
Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016
Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Electronics Market
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016
Chapter - Automotives
Argentina Autos Industry SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Argentina Autos Sales, 2009-2016
Table: Argentina Autos Production, 2009-2016
Table: Argentina Autos Trade, 2009-2016
Table: Argentina Autos Sector Economic Contribution
Chapter - Commercial Vehicles – Forecast & Analysis
Table: Argentina Commercial Vehicle Segment, 2009-2016
Light Commercial Vehicles
Table: Argentina Light Commercial Vehicle Sales By Manufacturer (Units), 2010-2011
Table: Argentina Light Commercial Vehicle Production By Manufacturer (Units), 2010-2011
Heavy Commercial Vehicles
Table: Argentina Heavy Commercial Vehicle Sales By Manufacturer (Units), 2010-2011
Table: Argentina Heavy Commercial Vehicle Production By Manufacturer, 2002-2010 (CBUs)
Table: Argentina Bus Sales By Manufacturer, 2007-2011
Table: Argentina Bus Production By Manufacturer, 2002-201 (CBUs)
Table: Argentine Fleet Renovation Plan
Chapter - OTC Pharmaceuticals
Argentina Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
Table: Pharmaceutical Price Build-Up
Table: Drug Price Freeze, 2005-2008
Chapter - Demographic Outlook
Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Argentina's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Argentina's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
The just-drinks office is currently: Closed
Office opening hours
The office is closed during weekends.
Current time at just-drinks headquarters: 10:51pm (Sunday, 19 May 2013)