Algeria Food and Drink Report Q1 2013
Report description
Our Middle East & North Africa (MENA) team sees private consumption growing 6.5% in 2012 and 5.5% in 2013. The government will play an integral role in this regard, as its expansionary policy will underpin healthy household consumption growth rates in 2012. According to the draft 2013 budget, however, the government will cut spending by 11.2%, with no salary hikes planned. Although we do not believe that cuts will be as significant as planned, given that the government's authority rests in its ability to improve citizens' perceptions of their well-being, fiscal policy will likely be less expansionary than in the past, which will negatively affect private consumption in 2013.
That said, the favourable outlook for the agriculture sector will underpin healthy levels of household consumption, as agriculture accounts for 12.0% of GDP and for about 1 in 5 jobs. Our broadly positive private consumption view bodes well for growth in food and drink going into 2013.
Headline Industry Data
? Per capita food consumption is forecast to grow by 10.2% in 2013 (local currency). To 2017, per capita food consumption is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 9.1%.
? Mass grocery retail sales (local currency) are forecast to increase by 24.9% in 2013. To 2017, compound annual growth of 28.4% is forecast.
Key Industry Trends And Developments Casino and Al Meera Investing In Retail: In February 2012, French retailer Casino signed a joint venture agreement with Qatari retail group Al Meera Holding, with plans to open outlets in North Africa and Jordan. The joint venture, called ALGE Retail, is looking at expansion in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. It will be headquartered in Geneva, with Casino owning 49% and Al Meera 51%.
Nestlé Launches Milk Powder Factory Amid Rising Demand: In October 2011, Swiss food conglomerate Nestlé launched a milk powder factory in Algiers to exploit rising domestic demand. The firm’s second plant in the country will help to expand its presence, while also enhancing the local industry, according to the managing director of Nestlé Algeria, Bertrand Sigwalt. The new facility is likely to generate 50 jobs and will allow Nestlé to distribute other brands like Nescafé and Nesquik.
Key Risks to Outlook Downside Risks Prevail: The risks to our current consumer outlook are currently mostly to the downside. For example, a sudden drop in global energy prices, prompted by a double-dip recession in the West or other phenomenon, poses a downside risk to our GDP and fiscal budget forecasts, which would also trickle down to consumer spending. Such a scenario would also limit the government’s ability to respond to future protests, thus denting investor confidence in the country, which currently remains underserved in organised retail terms. We also stress that potential large-scale unrest also poses downside risks to Algeria’s political risk profile in the longer run.
Table of contents
Chapter - BMI Industry View
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
North Africa Food Industry SWOT
North Africa Drink Industry SWOT
North Africa Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Chapter - Business Environment
BMI's Core Global Industry Views
Table: Core Views
Middle East Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa Q Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Middle East & North Africa Q Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings (scores out of )
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Table: Algeria – Economic Activity
Chapter - Industry Forecast
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Algeria – Food Consumption
Table: Algeria – Fish
Table: Algeria – Oils & Fats
Table: Algeria – Margarine
Packaged Foods
Dairy
Table: Algeria – Dairy
Table: Algeria – Butter
Table: Algeria – Cheese
Drink
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Algeria – Beer
Table: Algeria – Bottled Water
Hot Drinks
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Algeria – Mass Grocery Retail Sales
Trade
Chapter - Industry Trends And Developments
Key Regional Industry Trends And Developments
Savola And Almarai Look Well Placed For Growth
Weak Spanish Market Pushes Food Producers To Look At North Africa
Dabur India To Establish New Manufacturing Plants
Regional Governments Aim To Reduce Dependence On Imports
Increased Focus On Exports
Regional Market Overview
Food Consumption
Food Production
Confectionery
Chapter - Drink
Key Regional Industry Trends And Developments
Surprisingly Strong Alcohol Industry
Local Companies Attract Foreign Interest
Tourism Continues To Shape Development Of Drinks Industries
Regional Market Overview
Alcoholic Drinks
Soft Drinks
Hot Drinks
Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail
Key Regional Industry Trends And Developments
Foreign Players Increasingly Interested In North Africa
Not All Plain Sailing
Regional Market Overview
Chapter - Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players In North Africa's Food & Drink Sector
Table: Key Players In North Africa's MGR Sector
Chapter - Company Profiles
Heineken
Café Aoued
Chapter - Demographic Outlook
Table: Algeria's Population By Age Group,- (‘)
Table: Algeria's Population By Age Group,- (% of total)
Table: Algeria's Key Population Ratios,
Table: Algeria's Rural And Urban Population, -
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Weighting
Table: Weighting
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing
The just-drinks office is currently: Closed
Office opening hours
Mon-Thursdays 9:00am-5:30pm
Fridays 9:00am-4:30pm
The office is closed during weekends.
Current time at just-drinks headquarters: 9:58pm (Friday, 24 May 2013)
Need help? Contact the research team
