Research - GLOBAL: Spirits, wine sales set to slow

By | 8 January 2010

Growth in both the global spirits and wine categories is expected to slow markedly in the five years to 2013, according to new research.

report from The IWSR, released late last year, has said that the global spirits market will grow by only 0.4% CAGR between 2008 and 2013, down from 2.4% between 2003 and 2008. The global wine market, meanwhile, will grow by 0.6% over the forecast period, down from 1.4% between 2003 and 2008.

In the spirits category, India's already enormous whisky market is expected to continue to grow, while brandy is expected to overtake rum/cane by 2013 to become the second largest spirits category. There will be continued growth in white spirits and rum/cane in the US, while brandy and whisky will remain essentially flat.

Whisky and rum/cane will be the only major categories to increase their percentage share of the worldwide market between 2008 and 2013, the report notes. Whisky will show a 2.7% CAGR growth over the next five years, due entirely to Indian whisky. The six largest whisky markets in the world are likely to remain stable in terms of volume between 2008 and 2013 but Spain will fall from fourth to sixth place and the UK will rise from sixth to fourth.

White spirits will remain at present levels between 2008 and 2013 having grown by 1.6% CAGR from 2003 to 2008. The US will be the fastest-growing white spirits market as vodka remains the most trendy category and the one seeing the most investment. This trend will not continue indefinitely as growth in the number of drinkers will inevitably slow down.

Turning to wine, France is likely to slow its decline at the end of the forecast period, as the effect of the economic crisis on the country has been less pronounced, and the country has one of the highest birth rates in Europe. Spain has the lowest per capita consumption of any wine-producing country, and younger consumers are entering wine at a later age, if at all. However, like France, the decline in wine consumption in Spain is likely to slow over the forecast period. The wine market in China is expected to continue to grow rapidly, and overall Asia-Pacific will continue to take market share from Europe.

Expert analysis

The IWSR Forecast Report

Based on The IWSR's experience of local markets, The IWSR's Forecast Report 2009-2013 analyses current and future trends for all wine and spirits categories.

Sectors: Spirits, Wine

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